Goldman’s New GDP Prediction And QR Virus Codes In Moscow: Welcome To Your Dystopian Future

Goldman’s New GDP Prediction And QR Virus Codes In Moscow: Welcome To Your Dystopian Future

Market participants will be glad to see the quarter end on Tuesday, that's for sure. Almost all major equity gauges posted outsized losses in Q1, although a smattering of rallies over the past several sessions helped cushion the blow, as did wave after wave of central bank action in March. European stocks were tracking for one of their worst quarters in history. The rub is: Next quarter will surely be worse economically, if not for risk assets, although maybe that too. "Today is the end of
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5 thoughts on “Goldman’s New GDP Prediction And QR Virus Codes In Moscow: Welcome To Your Dystopian Future

  1. Hard to imagine the negative economic impact of this will be over by June 30. If the US death rate is now being estimated at .0066%– and US government is estimating 100,000 US deaths, if you do the math, this implies that only 5% of Americans will have been infected. How does economy go back to growth under this scenario? Hopefully, my math is incorrect.

    In other news, CDC is reevaluating their previously published position that masks are not necessary– looks like CDC is moving to “wear a mask”.

    Finally, Austria has instituted draconian measures- shoppers are limited to 12 bottles of wine and 2 cases of beer/2 liters of alcohol – per visit.

  2. The idea this is “over” by June is somewhere between laughable and insane. What precisely would materially change between now and June? If we get it under control in May, relaxing social distancing would simply light the fuse all over again. Without a vaccine we are in this for the foreseeable future. Given we’ve never had a Coronavirus vaccine and we cannot use Flu Vaccine techniques to make one a moonshot, hole in one would probably take 18 months. Stick a fork in 2020, it’s done. International Travel is likely to see restrictions for years.

  3. Keep in mind, a vaccine is not the only salve for this situation. If an effective drug treatment regime was developed, the serious illness cases (20% total – 1-4% death rate for all cases) could be addressed right away. One reason a vaccine takes longer is that the hurdle for using it is higher- it is given more broadly and to healthy people. A drug treatment can be used more quickly, especially in life threatening cases because of the limited downside (the person is at risk of dying anyway). The hurdle to try is lower and therefore can be tested and used more quickly. If an effective drug treatment or other treatement was developed, we could go back to a more normal type of existence, since the 80% of cases could be risked- and the serious cases could get treatment. In an ideal world we would get this treatment which would give us time to develop a vaccine in 1-2 years (fingers crossed). Without a treatment regime, we will eventually have to rely on herd immunity developing- not a great prospect and this will lead to continued restrictions.

  4. Day by day, I’m becoming much more optimistic about conquering Covid-19. It’s the catastrophe on Main Street that depresses me. Wall street is taking care of itself, but there is no way that the Fed or the government can support the 28 million small businesses that provide the services and the bulk of U.S. employment.

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