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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

McElligott On Nvidia And The Santa Rally Check List

November 20, 2025November 21, 2025

Nvidia did “the Atlas thing,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Thursday, as a still-nervous US equity

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8 Comments on McElligott On Nvidia And The Santa Rally Check List

‘It’s Only A Buyer’s Market If You Can Afford To Buy’

November 20, 2025November 21, 2025

Existing home sales in the US were — how should I put this? — very

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Leave a Comment on ‘It’s Only A Buyer’s Market If You Can Afford To Buy’

Delayed Jobs Report Leaves December Fed Question Unanswered

November 20, 2025November 21, 2025

The US economy added more than twice as many jobs as expected in September after

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1 Comment on Delayed Jobs Report Leaves December Fed Question Unanswered

‘Everywhere, Everything, All At Once’: Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

November 19, 2025November 20, 2025

Vive la révolution! Nvidia sold some chips last quarter. Quite a few of them, actually.

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5 Comments on ‘Everywhere, Everything, All At Once’: Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

Fed Sounds Biased Against December Rate Cut

November 19, 2025November 20, 2025

Pretty much the only thing everyone agreed on at last month’s FOMC meeting was that

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4 Comments on Fed Sounds Biased Against December Rate Cut

Trump Nixes October Jobs Report

November 19, 2025November 20, 2025

Oh, good: A teachable moment for a political scientist in a room full of macro-market

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3 Comments on Trump Nixes October Jobs Report

Save The Buybacks!

November 19, 2025November 19, 2025

How important are buybacks? That’s a rhetorical question. The answer, qualitatively, is “very.” If you

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1 Comment on Save The Buybacks!

Forlorn US Housing Can’t Catch A Damn Break

November 19, 2025November 19, 2025

They’re, um, still struggling to buy the homes. “They” is any American who wants a

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2 Comments on Forlorn US Housing Can’t Catch A Damn Break

Wall Street’s Most Famous Bear Suggests This Time’s Different

November 19, 2025November 20, 2025

This time’s different. Don’t get testy with me. I didn’t say it. Rather, it was

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1 Comment on Wall Street’s Most Famous Bear Suggests This Time’s Different

AI Bubble Tail Risk Rises Sharply Among Fund Managers

November 18, 2025November 18, 2025

It feels like this should go without saying by now, which is why I relegated

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1 Comment on AI Bubble Tail Risk Rises Sharply Among Fund Managers

Mike Wilson, Uber-Bull?

November 18, 2025November 19, 2025

For the better part of three years, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson insisted the US economy

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8 Comments on Mike Wilson, Uber-Bull?

Capex And Clickbait

November 18, 2025November 19, 2025

You’ve all seen the chart right? The one about fund managers and capex? If not,

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1 Comment on Capex And Clickbait

McElligott On Stock Churn: ‘Relax’

November 18, 2025November 19, 2025

“Relax, it’s just PNL protection.” That’s what Nomura’s Charlie McElligott had to say Tuesday about

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6 Comments on McElligott On Stock Churn: ‘Relax’

US Private Sector Is Still Losing Jobs

November 18, 2025November 18, 2025

I feel like I should introduce this brief update with a reminder: We’re getting weekly

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Lowest Cash Levels On Record Shout ‘Sell!’

November 18, 2025November 19, 2025

Late last week, while previewing the November edition of his global fund manager survey, BofA’s

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Back-From-The-Dead Bonds Are Finally Beating Cash

November 17, 2025November 18, 2025

Don’t look now, but US Treasurys are on track for their best year since 2020.

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2 Comments on Back-From-The-Dead Bonds Are Finally Beating Cash

Are C-Suite AI Bulls All Hat And No Cattle?

November 17, 2025November 18, 2025

Nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI during their Q3 quarterly analyst calls. Around

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5 Comments on Are C-Suite AI Bulls All Hat And No Cattle?

AI Bubble Fears Morph Into CDS Hysteria

November 17, 2025November 18, 2025

Late last week, I wrote about the hullabaloo over Oracle’s credit default swaps. The overarching

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2 Comments on AI Bubble Fears Morph Into CDS Hysteria

China Loses It With ‘Dirty Neck’ Takaichi

November 17, 2025November 18, 2025

One thing was clear enough when Sanae Takaichi held “direct and candid talks” with Xi

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1 Comment on China Loses It With ‘Dirty Neck’ Takaichi

Wage Growth Goes K-Shaped

November 16, 2025December 21, 2025

When we talk about (complain about) America’s so-called “K-shaped” economy in the post-pandemic era, we

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4 Comments on Wage Growth Goes K-Shaped

World’s Most Important Macro Release Returns

November 16, 2025November 17, 2025

The newly-reopened US government will release two-month-old employment figures this week. I’d suggest no one

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2 Comments on World’s Most Important Macro Release Returns

Weekly: Don’t Forget The Fed

November 15, 2025November 17, 2025

The disorienting to-and-fro of momo and meme stocks — and associated fretting over the psychological

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16 Comments on Weekly: Don’t Forget The Fed

Adriana Kugler’s Husband Made Some Trades

November 15, 2025November 17, 2025

When Adriana Kugler bailed on the Fed in August, gifting Donald Trump an open seat

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1 Comment on Adriana Kugler’s Husband Made Some Trades

Crocodile Tears For Main Street

November 14, 2025November 16, 2025

It’s rough out there, where “out there” means Main Street in America. Hell, in some

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1 Comment on Crocodile Tears For Main Street

The ‘Best Short’

November 14, 2025November 16, 2025

There’s a new big short. Or “best short.” Somebody call Michael Burry and tell him

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1 Comment on The ‘Best Short’

In China: Policy Failure

November 14, 2025November 15, 2025

Nothing to see here, just a double-digit plunge in fixed investment across the world’s second-largest

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6 Comments on In China: Policy Failure

Are Traders Front-Running The Leveraged ETF Rebalance?

November 13, 2025

Way back last week (time flies when you’re over 40), I casually mentioned that leveraged

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3 Comments on Are Traders Front-Running The Leveraged ETF Rebalance?

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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