Professional money managers have virtually never been more bullish. Because what on Earth could go wrong, right?

That’s clichéd sarcasm. And it’s a rhetorical question. We saw this week what can go wrong. The US could invade Greenland, sounding the death knell for NATO. Or the JGB market could blow up.

But, as discussed here on January 18, there has to be a straight-line connection between geopolitical events and corporate profits to catalyze a sustained drawdown in equities. And while the screaming selloff in JGBs certainly counts as a risk, particularly in the context of spillover potential to the long-end of the Treasury curve at a time when at least some irritable Europeans are selling US debt, macro and profit expectations remain robust.

In the latest installment of BofA’s closely-watched Global Fund Manager Survey, growth expectations surged from a net 18% to a net 38%, the highest since July of 2021.

Note from the chart that the growth expectations series has now completed its “catch-up” with the YoY change in US equity prices, thereby closing a gap which some observers worried was indicative of selloff potential.

So that’s the growth side. How about profits? Spoiler alert: It’s the same story.

As the figure below shows, a net 44% of survey panelists see global profits improving over the next 12 months. That too is the highest share since the summer of 2021.

“Investor EPS optimism is now clearly discounting a material improvement in global manufacturing activity,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett remarked, editorializing around the chart.

Not surprisingly given all of that, recession expectations hit what may as well be an all-time low in the survey. Just 9% see a downturn. For reference, that figure was nearly 70% following “Liberation Day.”

Notably, more than one in three expect a “boom,” the most since September of 2021.

In a sign that panelists aren’t completely oblivious to what’s going on outside the figurative and literal bubble, geopolitics stormed to the top of the “tail risk” list.

As you can see, global events didn’t make the top six in any of the last three months. Not since 2024 has geopolitics topped the list by name.

Now, in light of Donald Trump’s — how should I put this? — fast start, to 2026, “geopolitical conflict” is seen as a bigger tail risk than the AI bubble.

In that context, I reckon survey participants are correct to assess the odds of a “boom” as quite elevated.