The Great Irony Of China’s Record-Low Birth Rate

13 thoughts on “The Great Irony Of China’s Record-Low Birth Rate”

1. What is China’s actual population? 800M? Nobody knows.

2. Similar issue in the US where capitalism and growth go hand in hand. That is why the fight against immigration is so perplexing.

   1. If you scratch a MAGA apologist with an education, they will invariably mutter: something something economic imperialism. It’s not a bad pitch, prima facie: let’s import wealth and productivity from our overseas holding while keeping the onshore population ethnically pure and lily-white.

      Of course, experience has shown, over decades, that the benefits of those escapades acreue to a tiny subset of society. Then there’s the matter of the physical brick-and-mortar world which requires sustained economic activity: “I need someone to be flipping my burgers,” as I typically sum it up. Without that activity, quality of life for the would-be emperors suffers dramatically, and the demographics are not kind to the pool of labor for all of those society-sustaining jobs.

      Invariably, they change the subject on me at this point. The anti-immigration position is one of ignorance that can’t stand up to even simple scrutiny. Alas, fear is a far more natural response to ignorance than learning.

   2. Remember sir, the power guys got it backwards again. America grew into the worlds biggest economic power as a a result of immigration-based population growth. But that created competition for old white men who want to make sure that doesn’t happen again. Trouble is you can’t sell houses when there is no one to fill them. Look at China. Empty houses everywhere. Look around. Who started new businesses in the 20 century? Old rich people? No. New immigrants struggling to breathe free ….

3. I don’t think this trend is a coincidence. More like the result of an agreement the wealthy Chinese men are forced (?) to make with Xi- to keep their wealth and stay out of prison. This is from WSJ, but even the New York Post is covering this. They probably all secretly follow Elon on X.

   https://www.wsj.com/us-news/chinese-billionaires-surrogacy-pregnancy-7fdfc0c3?st=P4UEDp&reflink=article_copyURL_share

4. How does a 3.4 million population decline equate to a 2.5% population decrease in a country with 1.4 billion people?

   1. It’s that “population natural growth rate” series.

      1. I get it now, thanks.

5. The beatings will continue until progress is made !

6. Apparently a fair number of young people in China are already “lying flat” and/or underemployed. Because they don’t have the optimism and security about the future that is necessary to start a family and buy a home etc. AI and robotics is unlikely to result in more hiring and better incomes for most entry-level jobs for college graduates. And if 2 incomes are needed to support a desired urban standard of living, then child care is an additional expense. So it’s hard to explain how having more children improves their national economic situation and increasing domestic consumption, when there isn’t a plausible future of stable incomes that ensures the security of a stable desired standard of living.

7. One thing to add about Malthus: his “food grows arithmetically” claim was based on limited data. Over longer periods, food production, like most other processes, grows exponentially through compounding % gains. Arithmetic growth only shows up when a system starts hitting limits that slow the growth rate.

8. Interesting graph on the eradication of extreme poverty.
   In absolute numbers, it would appear the CCP has been the most effective in advancement of human progression.

9. That poverty chart is remarkable. Would love to see what that looks like in say the post Civil War United States and the post WWI Soviet Union.

   And here’s to hoping the continent of Africa can do something similar in the next 30-40 years.