Donald Trump may spare us the humiliation of Fed Chair Kevin Hassett.

As recently as last month, betting markets were convinced Hassett was a lock for the nomination to replace Jerome Powell. On December 3, for example, Hassett’s Kalshi odds were roughly 85% amid reports Trump had all but made up his mind.

It was hardly surprising that Trump would lean towards the most sycophantic nominee with a shot at winning Senate confirmation. People like Larry Kudlow and Stephen Moore would be better suited to Trump’s purposes, but as we saw with the aborted attempt to install Moore and Judy Shelton at the Fed during Trump’s first term, the bar to clear for landing clownish candidates at the central bank’s pretty high.

Considering who runs the Pentagon and the FBI these days, I dare say second-term Trump would have a fighting chance at making Fed Chair Kudlow a reality (and part of me would like to see that for the entertainment value), but for whatever reason, Trump’s shortlist for the position ended up being less preposterous than it could’ve been considering his penchant for putting unqualified people in positions of great power.

Terrifying as the idea of Hassett running the Fed most assuredly is, that his potential nomination was the worst-case actually counted as a rare win for sanity in the Trump 2.0 era. Hassett’s a hack and a shameless toady, but he’s at least nominally qualified, and unlike a Pete Hegseth or a Kash Patel, Kevin’s a guy you could trust to look in on your house if he were your neighbor and you had to go out of town for a month. (Laugh as you will, but that’s not nothin’ in the context of Trump world.)

Late in December, Hassett’s odds of getting the nod abruptly plunged, though, when Trump appeared to reverse course on having made a final decision. Mid-month, Kevin Warsh (the “other Kevin”) stormed back into the race and on Friday, Trump seemed to suggest it’s Warsh who in fact has it in the bag.

“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” Trump told Hassett, during an event at The White House. “I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”

I’m not sure Hassett did want to know the truth. He seems like a guy who can’t handle it. The truth, I mean. He really wanted that Fed job, and Trump might’ve just informed him, for the first time, that he isn’t getting it. In public. In front of everyone.

As the figure shows, the betting market reaction was swift. Hassett’s odds dove below 20% and Warsh’s jumped to 60%.

The gist of Trump’s remarks was that he doesn’t want to lose a public cheerleader by sequestering Hassett away in a role where he’s obliged to stay politically neutral. But I think that misses critical nuance. Read on.

My guess is that with some Senate Republicans vowing to block Trump’s Fed nominees unless and until the administration ceases to menace Powell (which is basically to say unless and until Trump and Pam Bondi tell Bill Pulte and Jeanine Pirro that locking up a sitting Fed Chair isn’t actually an option, fun as it’d be), the saner of Trump’s top advisors, including Scott Bessent, suggested Warsh’s path on the Hill will be much easier than Hassett’s.

Recall from last month that Trump received internal pushback on Hassett who was deemed by some as “too close to the president,” as CNBC put it at the time. Just days previous, Trump reintroduced the possibility of a Warsh chairmanship when he told the press that “the two Kevins are great.”

So, at least for the time being, it looks as though the ill-advised decision to serve Powell with grand jury subpoenas might’ve torpedoed Hassett’s chances by heightening Senate concern around the threat of an overtly-politicized Fed.

During the same Friday event, Trump glanced over at Susie Wiles and said, of Hassett’s current role as NEC director, “We don’t want to lose him, Susie, but we’ll see how it all works out.”