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Featured

The Problem, In A Nutshell…

October 30, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026

Markets

Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Street Level

May 3, 2021May 4, 2021

If you had any doubts as to whether the demonstrable economic progress the US has

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12 Comments on Street Level

So Much For ‘Herd Immunity’

May 3, 2021May 10, 2021

COVID-19 isn’t going away. Increasingly, that’s the consensus among experts, many of whom believe that

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21 Comments on So Much For ‘Herd Immunity’

‘Delhi Needs Oxygen’

May 3, 2021May 9, 2021

The growth narrative is starting to crack for India. Over the weekend, the country became

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2 Comments on ‘Delhi Needs Oxygen’

Price Pressures, Price Pressures, Price Pressures

May 3, 2021May 8, 2021

In a somewhat unexpected turn for an economy hitting on all cylinders, ISM manufacturing posted

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4 Comments on Price Pressures, Price Pressures, Price Pressures

More Than A Sugar High

May 3, 2021May 3, 2021

US equities came into May looking to build on last month’s gains, propelled by a

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Leave a Comment on More Than A Sugar High

Bubble Tales

May 2, 2021May 3, 2021

Last week, I conceded that the US housing market is probably a bubble. “Conceded” not

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5 Comments on Bubble Tales

Ray Dalio And The Biden = Roosevelt Analogue

May 2, 2021May 3, 2021

Admittedly, I have a difficult time editorializing around Ray Dalio’s missives these days. Ray seemingly

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4 Comments on Ray Dalio And The Biden = Roosevelt Analogue

Folks Gotta Eat

May 2, 2021May 6, 2021

Market participants will digest top-tier US data this week, with April payrolls headlining. Consensus expects

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6 Comments on Folks Gotta Eat

Weekend At Berkshire’s

May 1, 2021May 6, 2021

They always sneak up on me — “they” means Berkshire weekends. Invariably, I’m relaxing on

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7 Comments on Weekend At Berkshire’s

Spend It If You Got It

May 1, 2021May 2, 2021

America’s largest corporations are beating analysts’ profit estimates at a rate not seen in at

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2 Comments on Spend It If You Got It

Tomorrow’s Crisis

May 1, 2021May 2, 2021

US equities headed into May coming off their best month since the election and analysts

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4 Comments on Tomorrow’s Crisis

Collateral Damage: Technology And The Theft Of History

April 30, 2021May 2, 2021

In contrast to capital, humans are well aware of certain costs. For although we care

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4 Comments on Collateral Damage: Technology And The Theft Of History

Gator Watching

April 30, 2021May 1, 2021

One of the most amusing (some folks wouldn’t use that adjective) things about scrolling through

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6 Comments on Gator Watching

Long Inflation

April 30, 2021May 1, 2021

The “trade of 2021” has been long copper (+27.9%) and short the 30-year Treasury (-13.8%),

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4 Comments on Long Inflation

Stimmy! And Leon, The ‘Fully Invested Bear’

April 30, 2021May 4, 2021

Did you get your “stimmy?” Some folks sure did. Personal incomes rose 21.1% in March,

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1 Comment on Stimmy! And Leon, The ‘Fully Invested Bear’

Double Dip

April 30, 2021May 1, 2021

A rather glaring transatlantic divide opened up in the first quarter, as the eurozone succumbed

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2 Comments on Double Dip

Exciting, Dynamic, Price-Setting Mechanisms

April 29, 2021May 1, 2021

Another session in paradise found US equities dawdling, or “chopping around,” if you prefer to

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6 Comments on Exciting, Dynamic, Price-Setting Mechanisms

Politics As A Suicide Cult

April 29, 2021April 30, 2021

Everything has always been about revenge. That is his curse, but, at this political moment,

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6 Comments on Politics As A Suicide Cult

Pay The Piper

April 29, 2021May 1, 2021

Some of the inflation banter emanating from prominent market participants can properly be written off

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2 Comments on Pay The Piper

Pyrrhic Victories

April 29, 2021May 5, 2021

For the third consecutive week, jobless claims in the US dropped to a fresh pandemic

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1 Comment on Pyrrhic Victories

In Preview Of Summer Boom, US Economy Accelerates

April 29, 2021May 3, 2021

The US economy expanded at a 6.4% pace in the first quarter (figure below), the

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Pipe Dream

April 29, 2021April 30, 2021

Listening to Joe Biden deliver a common sense assessment of what’s needed to help the

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18 Comments on Pipe Dream

Tim Apple Is Doing An Amazing Job

April 28, 2021April 29, 2021

Apple delivered another strong quarter on Wednesday afternoon. Color no one surprised. Sometimes, it’s hard

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‘That Could Have Been Me’

April 28, 2021April 30, 2021

Jerome Powell’s press conference was largely uneventful for the majority of market participants, but it

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8 Comments on ‘That Could Have Been Me’

Adults In The Room

April 28, 2021May 4, 2021

The Fed delivered a predictably bland, albeit relatively upbeat, statement following an April meeting that

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3 Comments on Adults In The Room

Cointreau

April 28, 2021April 29, 2021

If you’re looking to impress your friends at a cocktail party (and I hear those

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5 Comments on Cointreau

Right Tail Only, Please

April 28, 2021April 28, 2021

By now, most market participants with more than a passing interest in the day-to-day goings-on

Read More

2 Comments on Right Tail Only, Please

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • John3D on The Problem, In A Nutshell…
  • Sophist on The Problem, In A Nutshell…
  • TwinTigerz on Oil, Dammit!
  • Engineer on What’s What And WTF?

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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