Pushing The Envelope
Jerome Powell’s uncharacteristically deft navigation of treacherous waters around the March FOMC meeting provided a
Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now
Jerome Powell’s odds of skating through the March FOMC press conference unscathed were long. There
Fed Snubs Market On Median 2023 Dot, But Upgrades Inflation Forecasts
Fed officials offered a modest upgrade to their assessment of the US economy at the
Dot Obsession And What’s Next For Stocks
If you asked Nomura’s Charlie McElligott ahead of the March FOMC, there was scope for
Is The US Housing Market Cooling? (Probably Not)
Housing starts cooled again in February, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Traders and investors weren’t
But The Textbook…
The Fed was poised to be the only game in town Wednesday, with traders and
Bassman: When Markets Implode, Short Convexity Lurks Near Crime Scene
Investment managers display a bias to being short Convexity; a payoff profile where the
Dalio Tells ‘Crazy’ Story, Is Bullish ‘Stuff,’ Bearish ‘Stupid,’ Short Cash
Ray Dalio is confused about your behavior. Specifically, he doesn’t understand “why in the world”
‘Massive Days Ahead’ With 2% Seen As Correction Trigger For Stocks
There are “massive days ahead,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Tuesday, as the March FOMC loomed
In Milestone, COVID No Longer Top Tail Risk For Fund Managers
“Investor sentiment is unambiguously bullish,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, in the color accompanying the March
US Retail Sales Plunge Ahead Of New ‘Stimmy’ Surge
Last month, the market was treated to a flaming hot read on US retail sales,
‘Astra’nomical Problem Or ‘Temporary’ Setback?
Maybe it’s complacency or maybe it’s the number of safe (as far as we know)
Buy High, Sell Higher
Everywhere you turn there’s a dazed soundbite these days. The overt nature of the fiscal-monetary
New Year’s Resolutions, Infrastructure And Drunken Darts
While regular people are still sorting out how to allocate their “stimmy” (and I’m still
Whither Your Stimmy, Good Sir?
A quick scan of social media (and a “quick” scan is all I can subject
Signs Of Price Pressures Continue Unabated In Empire Survey
It’s a broken record. Input prices are rising. And PMIs continue to reflect as much.
Wait-And-See Mode
I don’t know if I’d call it “trepidation.” At the risk of trafficking in nebulous
China Serves Up Indecipherable Surge In Retail Sales, Factory Output
A year ago today, China reported what, as far as I know, was the first
Is There Ever A Bad Time For A Good Hedge?
It’s “awfully early” for this discussion, and BofA’s Michael Hartnett readily admits as much —
Yellen Says Inflation Isn’t A Top Risk
Janet Yellen is no stranger to answering questions about inflation. And, as she’ll patiently remind
Until Something Breaks?
The increasingly tense standoff between the bond market and the Fed will culminate this week
The Complete Application Of Blockchain Implies Human Subjugation
I am uncertain if humans understand the consequences of the complete application of blockchain technology.
What’s Cheap? (Don’t Answer That. It’s A Trick Question)
What’s cheap in equities? Wait. Don’t answer that. It’s a trick! It’s all expensive. I
Fantasy Worlds, Bitcoin And The Almost Apocalypse
Meanwhile, in the land of the make-believe, Bitcoin hit a new record over the weekend,
Treasury ETF In Bear Market As US Borrows Portugal’s GDP In 4 Days
If you go by TLT, bonds are in a bear market. The widely-followed long-end product
Behold: A Record Plunge In Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings
If you were looking for data to help support the narrative that the Fed’s silence
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