Groundhog Day
The first question Jerome Powell took during this week’s post-FOMC press conference related to the
The first question Jerome Powell took during this week’s post-FOMC press conference related to the
Although you wouldn’t know it to look at financial conditions or, relatedly, stocks, bonds and
Thanks to a multi-week decline in mortgage rates which helped catalyze a surprise increase in
It’s unlikely that anything Jerome Powell has to say on Wednesday, following the conclusion of
The Nasdaq 100 is on track for a double-digit monthly gain, Tesla rose more than
It’s a good thing Microsoft has a ~$13 billion inside line on the future of
Eventually, “risk markets will have to reconnect with the late-cycle backdrop.” That’s according to JPMorgan
Traders, investors and Fed officials in their pre-meeting quiet period will all get a look
The plane metaphors are as tired as they are ubiquitous. When it comes to analogies,
If you ask Goldman’s clients, the odds of a US recession in 2023 are pretty
Humanity just suffered two left-tail events in succession. Pestilence came calling in 2020 and then,
Those of a bearish persuasion have waited six months (at least) for concrete evidence to
“I’ll be over 5% and I see staying there for some time,” Esther George told
The earliest price action of 2023 in US equities found two growth heavyweights under pressure,
As the curtain closes on 2022, existential questions abound. Is the world headed for a
One big risk in 2023 is that a hard landing doesn’t happen. That’s counterintuitive and
At regular intervals this year, sophisticated market participants have gone to extraordinary lengths to explain
The post-FOMC trade (which I typically define as the day of the decision and the
The specter of ongoing rate hikes set against decelerating economic activity and persistent inflation isn’t
Muted markets and subdued sentiment looked more like visible discomfort by noon on Wall Street
Notwithstanding a Monday bounce triggered at least in part by a robust ISM services print
On Thursday, in “Powell Didn’t Try To Kill The Rally. And That’s Notable,” I contextualized
There wasn’t much America’s beleaguered technocrat in chief could’ve said differently this week to short
“It’s not so much a Black Friday as a grey one,” SocGen’s Kit Juckes wrote,
Things have calmed down. For now. In a year defined by uncertainty and cross-asset turmoil,
What came first, inflation, market pricing, Wall Street Fed calls or Fedspeak? It’s hard to
It was happening again on Tuesday. “It” means an unwelcome easing of financial conditions courtesy
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