This Ain’t Over: Macro Discomfort Returns For The Holidays

Muted markets and subdued sentiment looked more like visible discomfort by noon on Wall Street Tuesday. The bad vibes persisted into the close. Idle recession chatter from Jamie Dimon and David Solomon didn't help, but it's probably more apt to suggest markets are again grappling with the reality that this ain't over, to lapse briefly into colloquialisms. "This" means the frustrating macro and policy conjuncture that made 2022 such a woeful year for assets of all sorts. Between the very hot re
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2 thoughts on “This Ain’t Over: Macro Discomfort Returns For The Holidays

  1. WFC sounded cautious about its customers and their spending, at a conference today.

    I think the banks are all watching deposit balances shrink, credit balances rise, loan metrics weaken, in real time, and know that weakness won’t stay entirely confined to the lowest-income customers. Being banks, their response is naturally to cut costs and heads.

    Bigger picture, a slow bleed throughout 2023 would be the most frustrating scenario for many investors. Personally I would prefer markets to tank as soon as possible, ideally hard. Chipping out positive returns in a grinding down market is going to be a lot more challenging than simply holding oodles of cash for a few more months and then putting pedal to metal.

    I guess challenges can be, well, challenging, rewarding, and make one a better investor. Think positive!

  2. As an active investor, I agree.
    As a retiree, I try not to chase/find the winners in this challenging market. Just sit on extra cash to jump on opportunities that the market will I think provide in the coming months. Hold in the interim some GICs at 4-5%. And sleep well at night !
    But of course, every active investor’s timeline and tolerance for risk is different!

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