No Choice: A Bear Market In Democracy
Long before Joe Biden and Donald Trump officially committed to reprising their roles for a
What If Tariffs Are Deflationary This Time?
Here’s an idea: What if new tariffs are deflationary? If you’re inclined to dismiss that
Paging @KamalaHarris
Donald Trump won the first (and, if Democrats have any sense about them, the only)
Nothing Worse Than High Prices
Another month, another outsized revision on America’s marquee gauge of consumer sentiment. The final read
Two Fed Cuts Very Much In Play As Core Inflation Cools
As expected, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the US moderated further in May,
US Housing Market Logs Another Regrettable Record
I hate to relegate the single-worst read on a key leading indicator of US home
Brace For Impact
A growing chorus is concerned about the read-through of a prospective GOP election sweep for
With $2 Trillion Buffer Gone, Americans’ Spending Slows
When is the US government’s third try at estimating aggregate economic activity worth mentioning? That’s
Have US Jobless Claims Reached An Inflection Point?
After innumerable head fakes, it looks as though initial jobless claims in the US have
Micron And The Great Expectations Trade
Generally speaking, you should be able to venture a good guess as to whether high
Are Americans Taking Democracy For Granted?
I wasn’t planning to pen another “end of democracy” article this week. Really I wasn’t.
Why The Market Can’t Move
“Eye-wateringly dire.” That’s how Nomura’s Charlie McElligott described the vol environment in US equities, where
Macron, Le Pen And The Perils Of Polarization
It’s hard to feel “bad,” as such, for Emmanuel Macron. He not a terribly sympathetic
New Home Sales Plunge As US Housing Gridlock Continues
Sales of new US homes plunged in May, according to what I can confidently call
‘Too Big To Fail’ US Stock Market Isn’t So Exceptional Without Tech
US equities are “too big to fail.” That was one, among many, takeaways from what
Bubble Or Bust
Three months ago, SocGen’s Manish Kabra dethroned BofA’s Savita Subramanian to become Wall Street’s largest
Americans Have An Anxiety Disorder
US consumer confidence slipped in June, as Americans continued to fret about the outlook despite
There’s Always The Park Bench
Guess what? US home prices are at record highs. Oh, you already knew that? I
Who’s Right?
On some days (a lot of days, including the first day of this week) Nvidia
The Bond Conundrum
Bonds have very nearly pulled even for 2024. Maybe you noticed. 10-year US yields were
How To Lose $400 Billion In Three Days
Nvidia melted into America’s ridiculous heat wave on Monday, when the shares suffered a third
Kolanovic, JPMorgan See ‘Ominous Signs’
“Ominous signs.” Marko Kolanovic sees them. It’s been a long 18 months for bears. I’d
‘Three Potential Candidates’ To Break The Bullish Tape
The stock market’s not the economy. And the economy’s not the stock market. Morgan Stanley’s
The Skinniest US Equity Market Since At Least 1965
If it feels to you like US equity market breadth’s a perennial concern, you’re not
Where’d The Shorts Go?
Late last week, I spent a few minutes editorializing around record-low short interest on the
US Inflation Update In Focus As Stocks Gun For More Records
It’ll be a fairly busy week on the US macro front. An update on the
Netanyahu Wants His ‘Tools’ Now, Thank You
Israeli defense chief Yoav Gallant is in Washington this week to beg for weapons. If
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