Initial US jobless claims slipped below 220,000 for the first time in a month, Thursday’s update showed.

At just 219,000 for the week to December 21, the headline filers print undershot consensus. The prior week’s readout, covering the NFP survey period, was unchanged at 220,000.

Obviously, these subdued readings argue for the “strong labor market” narrative, and against sparse recession banter.

The four-week moving average moved higher, as it’s still capturing a spike to 242,000 the week after Thanksgiving.

If you’re in the recession camp, you’ll emphasize continuing claims, which marked another “since November 2021” high with the sharpest week-to-week increase in nearly a year.

As the figure below shows, the 46,000 WoW jump (for the week to December 14) was the most pronounced since January 20.

1.91 million overshot consensus. Economists were looking for 1.88 million.

As a quick reminder: The share of long-term jobless (i.e., the ratio of out-of-work Americans who’ve been searching for 15 or more weeks to the total counted as unemployed) is loitering above 40%, the highest levels on record outside of recession.

Between that statistic and the jump in continuing claims, you can make a “not as strong as the headlines suggest” case against the US labor market.

That speaks to what’ll be the macro-monetary policy push-pull during Q1 2025: The lingering suspicion that, outward appearances aside, all’s not well on the jobs front, weighed against sticky core inflation.