If you had to make a list of prospective good outcomes for 2025, which would you put first: Peace in Ukraine or a durable recovery in the Chinese economy?

Most of us would say peace in Ukraine given the unfathomable scope of the human suffering there, but if you’re a fund manager, you’d rather see Beijing figure it out on the stimulus front. After all, you’re not dying in muddy trench warfare, but your portfolio’s sensitive to the global growth impulse, and if the US economy were to falter, China has to be there to take the baton.

I’m being a little unfair. The question — posed by BofA this month to 171 survey panelists who together manage $450 billion, wasn’t which outcome would be the best for humanity, but rather “which development would be most bullish” in 2025. On that, peace in Ukraine placed a distant third.

As the figure shows, fund managers — in their professional capacity anyway — would much prefer an acceleration in Chinese growth and, by a small margin, “AI productivity gains,” than a peace deal in Eastern Europe. (It’s also notable that BofA included the US in the peace deal selection, as though America’s officially a combatant, or perhaps to suggest the only person who can end the war is “legendary” dealmaker Donald Trump.)

Amusingly — in a morbid sort of way — peace in Ukraine barely edged out US tax cuts on the list of prospective bullish catalysts.

Coming quickly back to China, reports on Tuesday suggested Beijing’s planning CNY3 trillion in special bond issuance for 2025, with the proceeds earmarked for a variety of initiatives and projects ranging from strategic investment to rekindling a dead consumption impulse.

As for bearish catalysts, trade war took the top spot, a testament to the urgency of China’s stimulus efforts.

“Disorderly rise in bond yields” and a return to Fed hikes were also seen as bearish risks.

More broadly from a macro point of view, 60% of panelists still expect a soft landing, and a third see “no landing,” which speaks to the risk of a hawkish Fed turn.

Oh, and a mere 6% of professional investors expect a hard landing for the global economy next year, essentially tied for the smallest share since the “landing” question was first asked. If you’re a contrarian type, I suppose that means a recession in 2025 is all but guaranteed.