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Featured

F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 27, 2026

Markets

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026

economy

It’s A Big Week

October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

15 Minutes Could Lose You $750 Million Or More

November 5, 2022November 6, 2022

Warren Buffett bought more stock for his hedge fund and logged a massive paper loss

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Leave a Comment on 15 Minutes Could Lose You $750 Million Or More

The Dawn Of The Great Immoderation

November 5, 2022November 14, 2022

It’s a heretical notion, but I’m compelled to repeat it at regular intervals: It’s the

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19 Comments on The Dawn Of The Great Immoderation

Goldman Slashes Outlook For S&P Profits. Sees No Growth

November 5, 2022November 6, 2022

For the first time since the pandemic, corporate margins contracted in the US. Net margins

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1 Comment on Goldman Slashes Outlook For S&P Profits. Sees No Growth

Town Square Suffers ‘Massive’ Revenue Drop, New Mayor Says

November 4, 2022November 11, 2022

Elon Musk is upset. Or maybe not. It’s hard to say. I doubt much actually

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16 Comments on Town Square Suffers ‘Massive’ Revenue Drop, New Mayor Says

Where US Jobs Weren’t In October

November 4, 2022November 7, 2022

Perhaps just as interesting as where the jobs were last month, is where the jobs

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Yuan, Loonie Soar, Dollar Plunges In Friday Fireworks

November 4, 2022November 5, 2022

The offshore yuan surged the most on record. Again. Just days after a swoon for

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1 Comment on Yuan, Loonie Soar, Dollar Plunges In Friday Fireworks

Jobs Report Cements Lofty Fed Ambitions

November 4, 2022November 9, 2022

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October, the government said Friday. That was far

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6 Comments on Jobs Report Cements Lofty Fed Ambitions

No, Xi’s China Is Not ‘The Alternative’

November 4, 2022November 5, 2022

“China is the Alternative,” read the title of a somewhat dispiriting blog post published Friday morning in

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5 Comments on No, Xi’s China Is Not ‘The Alternative’

Party Off, Wayne

November 3, 2022November 5, 2022

Thursday’s key macro story — or one of them, anyway — was the stark juxtaposition

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1 Comment on Party Off, Wayne

US Economy Produces Another ‘Since 1982’ Moment

November 3, 2022November 4, 2022

For the first time since 1982, labor productivity in the US has fallen for three

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Mighty US Services Sector Stares Down ‘Challenges’

November 3, 2022November 5, 2022

Hot on the heels of a cool read on US factory activity, markets were treated

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UK Faces Unimaginably Cruel Two Years, BoE Forecasts Suggest

November 3, 2022November 10, 2022

The Bank of England on Thursday hiked rates by 75bps. It was a landmark moment.

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1 Comment on UK Faces Unimaginably Cruel Two Years, BoE Forecasts Suggest

The Rug Pull

November 3, 2022November 4, 2022

The Fed “executed the rare ‘dovish statement, but 10/10 hawkish presser’ surprise,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott

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2 Comments on The Rug Pull

The Scientific Method

November 2, 2022November 9, 2022

Jerome Powell almost threaded the needle on Wednesday. Around 20 minutes into one of the

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10 Comments on The Scientific Method

Fed Tips Slower Hikes, But Restrictive Nod May Placate Hawks

November 2, 2022November 3, 2022

The Fed on Wednesday hiked rates by 75bps, as expected. It marked the fourth consecutive

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Terminal Patient

November 2, 2022November 3, 2022

This’ll be stale as soon as Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday afternoon, but only in

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5 Comments on Terminal Patient

Really Strong, Really Uneven

November 2, 2022November 14, 2022

Despair, dear friends. Despair. US private sector employers added more jobs last month than any

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9 Comments on Really Strong, Really Uneven

Burning City On A Hill

November 2, 2022November 14, 2022

I’ve come to despise politics, which is unfortunate because I was raised around political scientists,

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63 Comments on Burning City On A Hill

Were Mega-Cap US Tech Stocks ‘Imposters’ All Along?

November 1, 2022November 2, 2022

Over the past, let’s call it three or four years, I’ve repeatedly referenced the suggestion

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12 Comments on Were Mega-Cap US Tech Stocks ‘Imposters’ All Along?

‘Soft Landing’ Hopes Electrocuted By Million-Volt JOLTS Beat

November 1, 2022November 14, 2022

Crucial labor market data released a day ahead of the Fed’s November policy meeting suggested

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7 Comments on ‘Soft Landing’ Hopes Electrocuted By Million-Volt JOLTS Beat

Good News, Bad News And Vice Versa

November 1, 2022November 14, 2022

US factory activity is on the verge of contracting. That’s the bad news. The good

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1 Comment on Good News, Bad News And Vice Versa

Crucial ‘Downshift’ Narrative Confirmed On Dubious RBA Anniversary

November 1, 2022November 2, 2022

It looks as though central banks have decided that downshifting to smaller rate hike increments

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10 Comments on Crucial ‘Downshift’ Narrative Confirmed On Dubious RBA Anniversary

The ‘Reopening Committee’

November 1, 2022November 1, 2022

The Chinese Foreign Ministry is “not aware” of any committees tasked with coordinating a grand

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Kolanovic, Wilson Agree: Central Bank Tightening Has Likely Peaked

October 31, 2022November 1, 2022

Wall Street’s most outspoken bear and the sell-side’s most famous bull agree on one thing

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9 Comments on Kolanovic, Wilson Agree: Central Bank Tightening Has Likely Peaked

Wicked Reversal Risk Hangs Over Fed Meeting

October 31, 2022November 1, 2022

You have to think three steps ahead these days. At least. By now, the Fed’s

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6 Comments on Wicked Reversal Risk Hangs Over Fed Meeting

The Fed Should End The Timiraos Speculation

October 31, 2022November 8, 2022

Earlier this month, when I was still willing to tweet something other than links to

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17 Comments on The Fed Should End The Timiraos Speculation

US Inflation May Soon Collapse: Mike Friedman

October 31, 2022November 1, 2022

If Milton Friedman was right, inflation may be poised to crater. “[CPI] is one of

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11 Comments on US Inflation May Soon Collapse: Mike Friedman

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • growly on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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