Overthrowing Xi Could Mean The End Of The World

I assume this is obvious, but what's obvious to me isn't always clear to the rest of humanity, so it's worth a mention: In the highly unlikely event that widespread protests in China resulted in a change of government, local equities would almost surely collapse, spreads would likely explode wider and government debt would be at risk of outright repudiation. Note that Mainland markets would probably implode even in the event of a relatively orderly transition to democratic governance. And any s
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16 thoughts on “Overthrowing Xi Could Mean The End Of The World

  1. It was not all that long ago that China was a patchwork of fiefdoms run by warlords whose only goal was self-enrichment. If push came to shove, how many Chinese really want to return to those glorious days?

  2. TBF, letting people yell in the streets is working fine for Iran. As long as the army/security apparatus remains faithful to the power in place, it’s hard for that power to ‘lose’ even if they don’t really control things anymore.

  3. The most likely outcome I can see coming out of sustained protests is Xi shifting gears on Covid zero basing it on the “science” that Covid-19 is no longer considered pandemic but endemic. It’ll give the people what they want and end the protests. He’ll follow that up by arresting and prosecuting as many protestors as he possibly can to threaten the populous from ever protesting his policies again.

    1. Yes, that’s the playbook. Also, quarantines may be limited to the elderly and others that are most at risk. The rest will be allowed movement with constant rigorous surveillance which is what every totalitarian autocrat craves.

  4. The biggest threat to Xi is if one way or another he botches handling the protests- then he will face internal CCP dissent and could be ousted from inside the CCP. The protests are unlikely to directly lead to regime change. The internal leadership will oust Xi and then blame his poor leadership for the difficulties- thus sacrificing him in order to maintain their own power. Machievelli outlined this process hundreds of years ago- the only difference is M suggested ousting a number 2 or 3 to achieve this rather than the number 1 leader.

    1. In that vein, he can push the decision making on Covid measures down to regional leaders. It can be a poisoned chalice for the recipients of those generous gifts.

      This is a pretty typical maneuver on his part.

  5. RIA is, I think, correct in saying that the biggest threat Xi faces is from the CCP if, for example, he decides to unleash a heavy-handed response to the protests similar to the response to the Tienanmen protests in 1989. But even without that, Xi is very aware of the way the West has responded to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, with a unanimity the NATO countries have rarely — if ever — shown. Whether the West would respond in a comparable manner to the Chinese government brutally cracking down on its own populace is an open question. But reinforcing that uncertainty in Xi’s mind doesn’t seem like such a terrible idea.

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