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Powell Delivers 2,400-Word FOMC Statement
Jerome Powell was pretty specific on a number of key points in prepared remarks for an event hosted
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The path forward is clear…somewhat.
I’ve felt all along that another reason for the reduced workforce participation in the last couple years is that Covid killed (and continues to kill) a lot of old people, speeding the transfer of wealth from one generation to another. Anybody anywhere close to retirement who got that unexpected windfall could suddenly make it happen, and apparently did. I’d love to see some research on that if anybody has seen it.
A lot? I dunno. COVID deaths seem to be about half a million for people 75+ (about 300K for 85+)
It could explain some of it, sure, but not most of it.
A +290bp move in SP500 presumably not the reaction Powell wanted to see. Wonder how he will adjust the message for the FOMC presser.
How about that just concluded 20.4% increase in the DOW over 2 months (since 9/30)…
How do we square this with Kolanovic calling for a relent? It seems that if the goal is to send people ‘back to work’ assets have to fall and stay fallen.
I suspect that people aren’t fully taking into account the knock-on effects that a slowing housing market will have on the rest of the economy. So my money is on Kolanovic.
What about the Fed’s preferential treatment to MBSs in the QT balance sheet rolloff/reduction scheme? If the Fed were a seller of MBSs, banks with MBS desks would be sweating.
I’d like to read about the effects of this preferential treatment on the $95 B/mo QT mandate. Does this soften the “landing” in some way?