Single-Family Building Drives Rebound In US Housing Starts
US housing starts rebounded last month after suffering a bad hangover from spring’s binge-building. At
Are US Stocks About To Get Interesting?
Two days into a week that should’ve been quiet if you forget about the seasonal
$635 Billion Is The Least Bearish Since Fed Liftoff
Two months ago, I wondered if equity bulls were about to “lose their best friend.”
Yuan Depreciation Is ‘Red Flag’ With China At ‘Desperate Juncture’
It’s fair to say China’s economic woes are the most important story in the macro
Builder Sentiment Drops, Home Depot Beats, Buffett Buys
For the first time this year, US homebuilder sentiment declined. After dropping every month in
The Russian Ruble Is Collapsing. Here’s What To Know
With apologies to all the… I don’t know, ruble fans (?) out there, the Russian
US Retail Sales Blow Away Estimates. Empire Fed Gauge Weak
Notwithstanding the scattered protestations of those desperately seeking confirmation bias for “slowdown” narratives that didn’t
China Cuts Rates Most Since 2020 Amid Disastrous Data
While previewing the release of key activity data for the Chinese economy, I not-so-gently suggested
A Critical, Obvious, Underappreciated Point About Real Rates
On countless occasions over the past 12 or so months, Fed critics insisted that despite
Kolanovic Warns Investors: We’re Not Out Of The Inflation Woods
Two benign US CPI reports in a row might make a streak, but they don’t
‘Soft Landing’ Dominates In Macro Narrative Tug Of War
The “soft landing” narrative spent the last two or three months gathering adherents in the
Fed Cuts May End With Rates Still Technically ‘Restrictive’
Early Monday, while documenting Goldman’s call for the commencement of Fed cuts from Q2 2024,
A Word On Goldman’s 2024 Fed Cut Call
Let’s be clear: All forecasts for the trajectory of Fed funds are guesses. Anything can
China’s Zhongzhi Crisis Underscores Risk Of Economic Collapse
An opaque Chinese conglomerate with a trillion yuan in assets spread across everything from real
Between CPI And Jackson Hole
Retail sales and the July FOMC minutes headline in the US this week. Notwithstanding ongoing
‘Bad Folks’ With Problems
China will release key monthly activity figures this week. The news won’t be good, and
America’s ‘Profit Reckoning’ Never Showed Up
This quarter (Q3) marks a year since investors were told to be on watch for
Discretionary Investors Fade Half Of Melt-Up Positioning Increase
For much of 2023, re-leveraging and re-risking was the purview of systematic investor cohorts mechanically
Behold: A Can’t-Miss Options Strategy Finally Sputters
For months (or maybe I should just say for the duration of the summer equity
0DTE Options Take Over As Volume Share Hits Record
If markets feel choppy to you, it’s not your imagination. And if that chop seems
China, EM Dominate US, DM In 2023 Stock Fund Flow Race
I’ve been on at considerable length about the lack of an “all-in” capitulation moment for
A Good News Story. Literally.
Friday’s update on consumer sentiment was an uneventful affair. Americans’ perceptions of the economy and
$130 Billion Tidal Wave Puts US Treasurys On Pace For Record Inflow
For an asset issued by a sovereign exhibiting signs of deteriorating governance and running an
PPI Overshoots In Disappointing Follow Up To Favorable CPI Report
In a minor blow to the US disinflation narrative, producer prices rose more than expected
Another Week, Another Record For Money Market Funds
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Inflows to US money funds
Cooling Down, Heating Up
As we celebrate the coolest run of US core inflation in more than two years,
Is The Fed Done?
The Fed may be done. Indeed, the market suspects the Fed is done. July’s CPI
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