Two Bears Reflect On 2023
Late last month, I published “A Brief History Of 2023’s Macro Narrative Stop-Outs” which, as
Is Mega-Tech A Bubble? (Probably Not)
Are US tech shares a bubble in 2023? If you can answer that question correctly,
More De-Dollarization!
Every few years, de-dollarization charges back above the proverbial fold in the financial pages and
Inflation Still Percolating In US Services Sector
Activity in the US services sector reaccelerated in August, according to this week’s only top-tier
The Dollar ‘Wrecking Ball’ Is Back
The “dollar wrecking ball” is back. If you didn’t know better, you’d be inclined to
Street’s Most Recognizable Bear Warns Of Unspecified ‘Event’
If you’re wondering whether Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is prepared to turn bullish on US
Marko Kolanovic: ‘The Unipolar World May Be Coming To An End’
“The current state seems to be one of insufficient dialogue and escalation,” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic
MBS Moves To Keep Oil Prices High
Mohammed bin Salman is a forward-looking, progressive guy with big plans for his country. Just
Renewed RRP Decline Is Sigh Of Relief In Some Corners
The trajectory of daily balances in the Fed’s RRP facility remains a focal point for
China’s Economy May Never Recover Pre-Pandemic Vibrancy
For about 24 hours, financial media outlets and some bank analysts were convinced that Beijing’s
Goldman Says US Recession Odds Have Completely Normalized
This was the summer of the soft landing. So said Goldman, in a new note
Post-Labor Day Corporate Debt Bonanza Seen At $120 Billion
This isn’t going to win me the Pulitzer, but as someone who talks all day
Stock Rally At Crossroads With Bad Month Rising
If you ask JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka, equities are a risky proposition right now. And not
The Emperor Has No Travel Plans
Xi Jinping, self-described champion of multilateralism and renowned advocate for international cooperation, is skipping the
Is This Your Homework Larry?
There’s not much on the data docket in the US for the holiday-shortened week. Sparse releases
The Thrill May Be Gone For Retail Gamblers
Is the thrill gone again for retail investors? Maybe. And to the extent everyday market
What Happens To The Economy When Student Loan Payments Resume?
One part of any “good” macro bear narrative for the back half of this year
60/40 Religion Questioned With US Bonds Set For Historic Third Annual Loss
Last month served as a reminder of the peril inherent in declaring the worst over
US Equity Funds Returned To Inflows In Late August
US equities returned to inflows as the curtain closed on an August to forget for
Devil’s Bargains
I’m no stranger to a Devil’s bargain. I’ve participated in several such arrangements. On both
Fed Gets Ideal US Jobs Report
The US economy added slightly more jobs than anticipated in August, wage growth cooled and
Worst May Be Over For America’s Manufacturing Sector
America’s factory malaise abated in August, the last of this week’s top-tier data out of
‘Stocks Love Booms’
“Stocks love booms.” And fiscal largesse is conducive to nominal booms. Makes you wonder why
Money Fund Assets Hit Another Record. RRP Lowest In 17 Months
Money market funds took in $14.37 billion in the week to August 30, data released
Is The Excitement Over?
With allowances and respect for August payrolls’ market-moving potential, equities felt inclined to settle down
Wagner Restructuring: Putin Inherits Chef’s Bloody Fare
“Who are you and what happened to hot dog guy?” “The caterer is dead. You
Americans Kept Spending As Q3 Dawned. Inflation Generally Cooperative
After re-accelerating at the end of the second quarter, personal spending in the US picked
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