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Featured

The Diesel Question

September 23, 2026September 23, 2026
  • Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

    September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

politics

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 23, 2026
  • A King In Washington

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Achtung Baby

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

    September 19, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Over A Barrel

    September 14, 2026September 14, 2026

Economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

September 17, 2026September 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Bond-Stock Waltz Is Drunken Tango In 2023

August 21, 2023August 22, 2023

When set against another day of bear steepening in the US curve, Monday’s Nasdaq rally

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1 Comment on Bond-Stock Waltz Is Drunken Tango In 2023

Will Mike Wilson’s Rationality Ever Win The Day?

August 21, 2023August 22, 2023

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson remains skeptical of 2023’s US equity rally. I imagine that won’t

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2 Comments on Will Mike Wilson’s Rationality Ever Win The Day?

Window For Stock Pullback May Close Without More Fireworks

August 21, 2023

Why were US equities able to pull back? Put differently: Why was the door open

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Stocks’ Fate Hangs On A Star

August 21, 2023August 31, 2023

The r-star debate has well and truly gone mainstream. Ahead of Jackson Hole, Wall Street

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1 Comment on Stocks’ Fate Hangs On A Star

China Rate Cut Asymmetry Raises Fresh Concerns Of Haplessness

August 21, 2023August 22, 2023

If there’s some grand plan in Beijing for rescuing domestic demand, the Party is playing

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3 Comments on China Rate Cut Asymmetry Raises Fresh Concerns Of Haplessness

Cash, Bonds Or Stocks?

August 20, 2023

We’re probably in ad nauseam territory by now when it comes to the “cash as

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Has The World Changed? Macro Watchers Still Divided Three Years Later

August 20, 2023August 21, 2023

Macro observers generally fall into two categories in 2023: Those who believe the world changed

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5 Comments on Has The World Changed? Macro Watchers Still Divided Three Years Later

Jackson Hole, China Crisis In Focus As August Melts Away

August 20, 2023August 31, 2023

Jackson Hole, and specifically what Jerome Powell has to say on Friday morning, is the

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1 Comment on Jackson Hole, China Crisis In Focus As August Melts Away

Don’t Fear The August Derisking, One Bank Says

August 19, 2023August 21, 2023

The August vintage of BofA’s closely-watched Global Fund Manager Survey suggested stewards of capital were

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Key Driver Of Summer Stock Melt-Up Slams Into Reverse

August 19, 2023August 21, 2023

Discretionary investors have de-risked into August’s equity selloff and systematic cohorts may be next. That

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Investors Cast Global Dragnet In Hunt For Treasury Selloff Culprit

August 18, 2023August 31, 2023

Bonds are obviously one of the key market stories in August. Indeed, were it not

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6 Comments on Investors Cast Global Dragnet In Hunt For Treasury Selloff Culprit

China Needs Major State Stimulus Amid ‘All-Out Deflation’

August 18, 2023August 20, 2023

China needs to do something to turn things around. That much is clear, even if

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3 Comments on China Needs Major State Stimulus Amid ‘All-Out Deflation’

US Stock Funds See Largest Outflow In Months As Sentiment Turns

August 18, 2023

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds just saw their largest one-week outflow since mid-June. The

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Real Yields Live Up To Kryptonite Reputation In Summer Stock Swoon

August 18, 2023August 19, 2023

It was a tough week for global equities. Stocks were on track for their worst

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China’s Very Bad Week Is Over, But Crisis Rolls On

August 18, 2023August 19, 2023

A God awful week for Chinese markets mercifully came to an end, but not before

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Money Market Fund Assets Power Ever Higher

August 17, 2023

Money market funds attracted nearly $40 billion in new cash in the week to August

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The Bonds Are Broken

August 17, 2023August 18, 2023

2023’s “year of the bond” mantra continues to disappoint investors who mistook a narrative for

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1 Comment on The Bonds Are Broken

Goldman’s Rubner Warns On Liquidity, 0DTEs, Bearish Seasonal

August 17, 2023August 18, 2023

“This is no longer a buy-the-dip market.” That’s according to Goldman’s Scott Rubner, who’s enjoyed

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1 Comment on Goldman’s Rubner Warns On Liquidity, 0DTEs, Bearish Seasonal

Panic Grips Chinese Markets As Beijing Ramps Up FX Intervention

August 17, 2023August 18, 2023

I’d apologize for spending so much time on China’s multi-faceted, rapidly worsening economic crisis if

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4 Comments on Panic Grips Chinese Markets As Beijing Ramps Up FX Intervention

CTAs Likely Sold $40 Billion Into Recent Stock Swoon

August 17, 2023

Dealers shedding VIX futures into expiration might’ve put a lid on vol, but it wasn’t

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China Sends Police To Zhongzhi Investors’ Doors As Crisis Spirals

August 17, 2023August 18, 2023

“Knock, knock.” “Who is it?” “It’s the police. We’re here about your high-yield savings account.

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3 Comments on China Sends Police To Zhongzhi Investors’ Doors As Crisis Spirals

FX Markets On Alert As Yen Breaches Intervention Level

August 16, 2023August 16, 2023

FX traders are once again on yen intervention watch. The Japanese currency on Wednesday weakened

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Is Helicopter Money The Only Option For China?

August 16, 2023August 31, 2023

If you’re a Chinese mutual fund, Xi Jinping would prefer you didn’t sell stocks right

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13 Comments on Is Helicopter Money The Only Option For China?

China’s Shadow Banks May Face $40 Billion In Property Losses

August 16, 2023August 16, 2023

“Why doesn’t the company pay us back?” wondered an irritable investor in a trust product

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1 Comment on China’s Shadow Banks May Face $40 Billion In Property Losses

Fed Minutes As Expected. Two Officials Favored No Hike Last Month

August 16, 2023August 17, 2023

A pair of Fed officials favored keeping rates on hold at last month’s policy gathering,

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UK’s Inflation Problem Persists. Does It Even Matter?

August 16, 2023August 17, 2023

Inflation fell markedly (and in some sense mechanically) in the UK last month, but another

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7 Comments on UK’s Inflation Problem Persists. Does It Even Matter?

Single-Family Building Drives Rebound In US Housing Starts

August 16, 2023August 17, 2023

US housing starts rebounded last month after suffering a bad hangover from spring’s binge-building. At

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1 Comment on Single-Family Building Drives Rebound In US Housing Starts

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Pyrognosis on The Diesel Question
  • John3D on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • C P on The Diesel Question
  • therealheisenberg on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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