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Featured

The Diesel Question

September 23, 2026September 23, 2026
  • Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

    September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

politics

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 23, 2026
  • A King In Washington

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Achtung Baby

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

    September 19, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Over A Barrel

    September 14, 2026September 14, 2026

Economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

September 17, 2026September 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

China Halves Trading Tax In Bid To Rescue Stocks

August 27, 2023August 28, 2023

Beijing on Sunday slashed by half a key levy on stock trades, the latest in

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1 Comment on China Halves Trading Tax In Bid To Rescue Stocks

A Few Thoughts On The Dollar

August 26, 2023August 28, 2023

Amid the Fed’s insistence on the “higher for longer” narrative, it’s all too easy to

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1 Comment on A Few Thoughts On The Dollar

You Didn’t Hold Your Breath Did You?

August 25, 2023August 27, 2023

I’m hesitant to quote or otherwise amplify familiar bearish prognostications predicated on a set of

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1 Comment on You Didn’t Hold Your Breath Did You?

US Stock Funds Suffer Largest Outflow In Months

August 25, 2023

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds saw the largest outflow since mid-May over the latest

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Powell Breaks No New Ground In Bland Jackson Hole Speech

August 25, 2023September 14, 2023

If the US economy continues to grow at an above-trend pace, the Fed may be

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4 Comments on Powell Breaks No New Ground In Bland Jackson Hole Speech

The World: Changing, Ending Or Both?

August 25, 2023August 27, 2023

Is the world changing or ending? Both, probably. We’re witnessing tectonic socioeconomic and geostrategic shifts.

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6 Comments on The World: Changing, Ending Or Both?

Germany’s Economic Woes Worsen As Confidence Slides

August 25, 2023August 26, 2023

Not that anyone needed additional confirmation, but an update on the key leading indicator for

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Money Fund Assets Loiter Near Record. RRP Drain Stalls

August 24, 2023August 24, 2023

An uneventful update on money market fund flows found total assets slipping from record highs

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The $20 Billion Sell Flow Behind Thursday’s ‘Counterintuitive’ Stock Plunge

August 24, 2023August 24, 2023

Stocks were supposed to rally if Nvidia delivered another blockbuster set of results. Nvidia held

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Powell Unlikely To Chance R-Star Shocker

August 24, 2023August 25, 2023

I doubt there was much to distill from Thursday’s price action in US markets other

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2 Comments on Powell Unlikely To Chance R-Star Shocker

Explosion, Missile Suspected In Prigozhin Plane Crash: Reports

August 24, 2023August 25, 2023

“You got him?” “Yeah.” “You sure? Because if we f— this up…” “I got him,

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7 Comments on Explosion, Missile Suspected In Prigozhin Plane Crash: Reports

‘It’s Time To Accelerate Equity Investment’: China Demands Stock-Buying

August 24, 2023August 25, 2023

China’s Securities Regulatory Commission held a “seminar” on Thursday. If you weren’t invited, count yourself

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BRICS+ For Short

August 24, 2023August 25, 2023

Starting next year, “BRICS” will be harder to pronounce. Cyril Ramaphosa on Thursday announced the

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1 Comment on BRICS+ For Short

‘The Race Is On’: Nvidia Delivers Monster Beat And Raise

August 23, 2023August 31, 2023

A “macro event.” That’s how Nvidia’s Q2 results were billed by the financial media and

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3 Comments on ‘The Race Is On’: Nvidia Delivers Monster Beat And Raise

Yevgeny Prigozhin Might’ve Slipped On A Banana Peel

August 23, 2023August 31, 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin might’ve died in a plane crash. Whether the caterer-turned warlord-turned usurper was or

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5 Comments on Yevgeny Prigozhin Might’ve Slipped On A Banana Peel

The Numbers Behind A Possible China ‘Lehman Moment’

August 23, 2023August 24, 2023

Whenever there’s trouble in China, the media conjures Lehman. “China Needs A Lehman Moment” or

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1 Comment on The Numbers Behind A Possible China ‘Lehman Moment’

The Dominance And Impact Of 0DTEs In Two Simple Charts

August 23, 2023

You’ve heard it again and again. Or at least you have if you frequent these

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1 Comment on The Dominance And Impact Of 0DTEs In Two Simple Charts

Americans Flock To New Construction Amid Record-Low Vacancy Rate

August 23, 2023August 24, 2023

Not surprisingly considering current housing market dynamics, US new home sales topped estimates in data

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US Mortgage Demand Falls To 28-Year Low As Rates Highest Since 2000

August 23, 2023August 31, 2023

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the US rose to 7.31% last week, up

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1 Comment on US Mortgage Demand Falls To 28-Year Low As Rates Highest Since 2000

US Economy ‘Near Stalling,’ Surprisingly Poor PMIs Suggest

August 23, 2023August 23, 2023

The mighty US services sector expanded at the slowest pace in six months, according to

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3 Comments on US Economy ‘Near Stalling,’ Surprisingly Poor PMIs Suggest

‘Sick Man’ Germany Drags Europe Into ‘Ugly’ Stagflation

August 23, 2023August 23, 2023

Europe is on the brink of recession. Or still in a recession. Either characterization will

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1 Comment on ‘Sick Man’ Germany Drags Europe Into ‘Ugly’ Stagflation

Fate Of The World

August 22, 2023August 23, 2023

Ahead of Jackson Hole — and, perhaps just as importantly when it comes to the

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9 Comments on Fate Of The World

There Is No ‘BRICS’

August 22, 2023August 31, 2023

This time last year, “some” analysts (where that actually means a money market specialist with

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3 Comments on There Is No ‘BRICS’

What The ‘Smart Money’ Is Up To

August 22, 2023August 22, 2023

Hedge funds shifted towards cyclicals during the second quarter and began Q3 the least underweight

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US Existing Home Sales Fall Amid Ongoing Affordability Crunch

August 22, 2023August 23, 2023

Existing home sales in the US fell 2.2% last month, data released on Tuesday showed.

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China Goes Into Firefighting Mode To Halt Stock Rout, Yuan Slide

August 22, 2023August 23, 2023

China is intervening and otherwise pulling out all the stops to brake the pace of

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3 Comments on China Goes Into Firefighting Mode To Halt Stock Rout, Yuan Slide

‘There Is No More Fear, Only Complacency,’ Kolanovic Says

August 21, 2023

“There is no more fear, only complacency.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic on

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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