“This is not tit for tat.”
That was the message (or one message anyway) from the Israeli military on Tuesday. It was still unclear if Israel would invade Gaza, but the IDF was busy constructing a base next to the border. According to reports, the structure will be capable of housing “tens of thousands” of troops.
Israel called up another 60,000 reservists, adding to what was already a record-large mobilization. At least 1,500 Palestinian militants were killed as the military secured towns near Gaza. The tally of Hamas’s dead underscored both the brazenness of the incursion and the scope of the apparent security failure in Israel.
Some reports suggested Hamas evaded Israel’s world-renowned intelligence apparatus simply by sticking to rudimentary methods — small meetings, no electronic communications and so on. Experts also nodded to the group’s counterintelligence capabilities, which have apparently improved over the past several years. It’s possible, some said, that the rank and file wasn’t made aware of how their roles fit into the larger plan which, according to an unverified account published by The Wall Street Journal, was hatched by Ismail Qaani in Beirut during meetings which included Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Far be it from me to question the Journal‘s account, but if Qaani, Nasrallah, Ziyad al-Nakhalah and Saleh al-Arouri were all hanging out together in Beirut “at least biweekly since August” (as the Journal reported) and nobody noticed or thought anything of it, this is among the worst intelligence lapses in modern history.
Still other reporting cited an Egyptian official who claimed Israel ignored a warning about “something big” from Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu’s office called that “fake news.” “No early message came from Egypt and the prime minister did not speak or meet with the intelligence chief since the establishment of the government — not indirectly or directly,” a statement said. The “intelligence chief” in that denial is Abbas Kamel. Ynet suggested Kamel called Netanyahu “to alert him about ‘something fierce'” just a few days prior to the attack. There’s no way to verify any such rumors.
In any event, the Israeli military is now back in control of the towns near Gaza which were overrun during the weekend attack, and the IDF is in the process of securing the border. Airstrikes inside Gaza will be “bigger than before and more severe,” the military said. “We should all change the paradigm here,” Lt. Col. Richard Hecht remarked. So far, at least 765 Palestinians have been killed in those strikes, and thousands wounded.
Volker Türk, the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, condemned Hamas (and Islamic Jihad) in stark terms on Tuesday, calling the groups’ actions “appall[ing]” and “horrifying.” Palestinian armed groups should “immediately and unconditionally release all civilians who were captured and are still being held,” he said, flatly noting that hostage-taking isn’t allowed.
But Türk also warned Israel about the consequences of a prolonged siege on Gaza. “The imposition of sieges that endanger the lives of civilians by depriving them of goods essential for their survival is prohibited under international humanitarian law,” the High Commissioner wrote. The UN cautioned that the “complete siege” announced by Israel on Monday “risks seriously compounding the already dire human rights and humanitarian situation in Gaza,” and the same statement said “information gathered by the UN Human Rights Office indicates that Israeli air operations have hit large residential towers in Gaza City and other residential buildings across Gaza, schools and premises of the UN relief and works agency, UNRWA, resulting in civilian casualties.”
Notably, the Israeli military isn’t necessarily denying that. The IDF’s Hecht said Israel’s air force doesn’t have enough munitions to fire warning strikes designed to alert Palestinian civilians to an imminent missile attack. “Because we have right now this very, very big-scale event, we are stretched with our aerial assets,” he said. “There will be more loss of life.”
Hecht wouldn’t say whether Israeli would alter its strategy for airstrikes in consideration of the 150 Israeli hostages being held in Gaza. He also had a message for Gazans: “Anyone who can get out, I would advise them to get out.”
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
William Butler Yeats
Permanently bookmarked in my collection. One of my three favorite poets. These are words one can feel in one’s chest.
As always, the UN and its diplomats are useless!
Is it possible that this is just a way for the much larger and better organized Hezbollah (Shiite) militant group to rid themselves of another militant group, Hamas (Sunni)? Both are funded by Iran – and possibly Hezbollah no longer sees Hamas as useful and they are merely a distraction from funding received from Iran that would otherwise be Hezbollah’s.
Other than firing a few rockets into Israel from the West Bank, and sideline cheering, so far, no real support for Hamas from Hezbollah/Iran. It seems so obvious that there would be a massive counterattack from Israel to the small original attack made by Hamas.
Is it possible that the end goal for Hezbollah is to annihilate Hamas?
Could be. But an alternate theory we’ve heard is that Hamas has thousands of rockets they are using to deplete Israel’s rocket arsenals, especially those needed for the Iron Dome. Then Hezbullah, which reportedly has hundreds of thousands of rockets, will step in and challenge a weakened Israel. Which would likely directly draw the US into the conflict.
Is either scenario likely? I dunno. As our Dear Leader often cautions, we are trying to make sense of the unknowable.
I bet DEVGRU is either in Israel right now or on the way there.
There are only two options for getting those hostages out of Gaza alive: Some kind of swap or the SEALs.
With the volume of hostages and the lack of sophistication in Hamas, that would require a lot of SEAL teams who would be taking lots of risk. They are probably located all over the Gaza strip by now.
Well, you’d certainly like to think Israel has at least some idea about where the hostages are given the IDF is conducting scorched earth airstrikes.
As in Ukraine, Israel is using expensive interceptor missiles against cheap drones and not-expensive rockets.
Ukraine is also using cheaper means of downing drones (anti-aircraft guns) but I don’t think those work against Hamas rockets.
The West needs to greatly increase munitions production, with more urgency than has been exhibited to date. Defense contractors need to be kicked into war mode and broaden their manufacturing base.
Sadly, the production of today’s most sophisticated weapons is a very complex and time-consuming process. Ramping up production is a far cry from assembling the Liberty ships which helped us win WWII.
True
Meanwhile, the algos don’t care.
Nope, the game must go on……..
As long as Arab countries (esp Iran) not directly fighting, markets can ignore the Israel-Hamas war. Attention turned to earnings, pre-announcements have been scarce.
My advice to all young Israelis, is what I give to all ‘merikins of same demographics….move to Canada and become an electrician. Zero hope in the two addicted Warmonger regimes…….
How quickly we can embrace war. I’d guess none of the sides has a ‘cast in concrete’ plan right now and there’s definitely more than two sides. Netanyahu would love to see Hamas gone (whatever that means) and Gaza run by the UN. Not saying that has a very likely probability.