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Featured

Knock, Knock. Who’s There? 7%!

September 23, 2026
  • The Diesel Question

    September 23, 2026September 23, 2026
  • Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

    September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

politics

‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

September 22, 2026September 23, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 23, 2026
  • A King In Washington

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Achtung Baby

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

    September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

September 17, 2026September 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Taking Stock Of Current Melt-Up (And Meltdown) Fuel

August 10, 2023

The inflation event risk cleared on Thursday morning in the US with no issues. Core

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September Fed Hike Unlikely After Second Benign CPI Report

August 10, 2023August 14, 2023

US consumer prices rose in line with expectations last month, according to the most important

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5 Comments on September Fed Hike Unlikely After Second Benign CPI Report

‘Forced Selling’ On The S&P? Here Are The Numbers

August 10, 2023August 11, 2023

In “Waiting For Inflation,” I noted that potential vol control de-leveraging is still a subplot

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1 Comment on ‘Forced Selling’ On The S&P? Here Are The Numbers

Waiting For Inflation

August 9, 2023August 10, 2023

“CPI eve” sessions are notoriously tedious in the 2020s. Monthly inflation reports out of the

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2 Comments on Waiting For Inflation

Sudden Surge In European Natural Gas Spotlights Key Macro Themes

August 9, 2023

If European natural gas is in the news, it’s usually for the wrong reasons. In

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A.I. Meets R-Star

August 9, 2023August 10, 2023

Not everyone’s convinced that generative A.I. is the future. While most analysts and economists readily

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12 Comments on A.I. Meets R-Star

Unlucky Number 7: Mortgage Rates Jump After Fitch Move

August 9, 2023August 10, 2023

Thanks Fitch! US mortgage rates sport a seven-handle again, and you can thank, in part

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4 Comments on Unlucky Number 7: Mortgage Rates Jump After Fitch Move

Xi Has Deflation

August 9, 2023September 14, 2023

Deflation is a taboo topic in China. You’re not supposed to talk about it. Especially

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2 Comments on Xi Has Deflation

More Color From The Most Important Market On Earth

August 8, 2023

It’s possible we’re all overstating the significance of recent events in the US Treasury market.

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The C-Suite Can’t Dodge Higher Interest Costs Forever

August 8, 2023August 9, 2023

What happens to the world’s largest economy when corporations finally start to feel the heat

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1 Comment on The C-Suite Can’t Dodge Higher Interest Costs Forever

When Will Corporate America Feel The Heat From Higher Rates?

August 8, 2023August 8, 2023

Rising rates have been a boon to some US corporates, and I don’t just mean

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Congratulations, America! You Now Have $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt

August 8, 2023September 14, 2023

Congratulations, America! You now have $1 trillion in credit card debt for the first time

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3 Comments on Congratulations, America! You Now Have $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt

Bad Banks

August 8, 2023August 9, 2023

Moody’s is concerned about America’s banks. And Italy will be making a withdrawal from its

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Excuses Aside, China’s Economic Gloom Continues To Worsen

August 8, 2023August 9, 2023

There was more disappointing economic news out of China on Tuesday. No one should be

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4 Comments on Excuses Aside, China’s Economic Gloom Continues To Worsen

9 Reasons America’s Largest Bank Still Doubts The Rally

August 7, 2023

It’s been a tough year for anyone determined to stick with a bearish call on

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Is The A.I. Bubble In Its ‘Later Innings’?

August 7, 2023September 14, 2023

There’s palpable tension in Wall Street research when it comes to discussions around 2023’s A.I.

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11 Comments on Is The A.I. Bubble In Its ‘Later Innings’?

Americans’ Revolving Credit Falls First Time In 25 Months

August 7, 2023August 8, 2023

Last month, I asked if the US consumer was “finally exhausted.” I was editorializing around

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1 Comment on Americans’ Revolving Credit Falls First Time In 25 Months

Mohammed Bin Salman Needs A Little More Out Of Aramco

August 7, 2023August 7, 2023

Saudi Aramco’s quarterly profit tumbled 38% in Q2, results released on Monday showed. Net income

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Fate Of The World Hangs On Treasury Curve’s Nascent Bear Steepener

August 7, 2023August 8, 2023

The fate of the universe hangs on the nascent bear steepener in the US curve,

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Wilson Says Fiscal Largesse Put Him Offside On US Stocks

August 7, 2023August 8, 2023

Unexpected fiscal largesse. That’s one, but not the only, reason Morgan Stanley’s house call on

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1 Comment on Wilson Says Fiscal Largesse Put Him Offside On US Stocks

The Art Of The Aeronautical Metaphor

August 6, 2023August 6, 2023

Aeronautical metaphors for the US economy (and, more to the point, the Fed’s efforts to

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1 Comment on The Art Of The Aeronautical Metaphor

Why Goldman Is Fading Last Week’s Bond Selloff

August 6, 2023August 7, 2023

As discussed here last week, the move in US reals seen in and around the

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5 Comments on Why Goldman Is Fading Last Week’s Bond Selloff

Inflation Update, Treasury Auctions In Focus After Fitch Whirlwind

August 6, 2023August 11, 2023

Still reeling from last week’s whirlwind, bond traders’ focus will turn to US inflation data

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Buffett’s Cash Pile Approaches Record Near $150 Billion

August 5, 2023August 7, 2023

Break out the Cherry Coke and peanut brittle, it’s Berkshire weekend! They always sneak up

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2 Comments on Buffett’s Cash Pile Approaches Record Near $150 Billion

Micro, Not Macro, Explains 2023’s Stock Returns

August 5, 2023August 7, 2023

Given the daily deluge of headlines documenting every twist and turn along what, rising soft

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1 Comment on Micro, Not Macro, Explains 2023’s Stock Returns

Is Voracious Risk Appetite A Contrarian Indicator?

August 4, 2023August 6, 2023

Needless to say, and notwithstanding a little “friction” around Fitch’s decision to downgrade America, risk

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Commodity Comeback?

August 4, 2023August 6, 2023

Is it time to bet on commodities again? Already riding a huge run-up from the

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1 Comment on Commodity Comeback?

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • John3D on The Diesel Question
  • Bill W. on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • derek on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • Pyrognosis on The Diesel Question

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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