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Featured

Knock, Knock. Who’s There? 7%!

September 23, 2026
  • The Diesel Question

    September 23, 2026September 23, 2026
  • Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

    September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

politics

‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

September 22, 2026September 23, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 23, 2026
  • A King In Washington

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Achtung Baby

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

    September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

September 17, 2026September 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

US Equity Fund Flows Slow, China Takes In $4 Billion

August 4, 2023

US equity funds took in a small $322 million on net over the latest weekly

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US Labor Market Cools, Wages Warm

August 4, 2023August 11, 2023

The US economy added just 187,000 jobs in July, Friday’s closely-watched government report showed. Revisions

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2 Comments on US Labor Market Cools, Wages Warm

The Yield-Curve Control Endgame

August 4, 2023August 5, 2023

I’m reluctant to indulge discussions about US debt and deficits. Everyone is ready and willing

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3 Comments on The Yield-Curve Control Endgame

Money Market Funds Set Another New Record

August 3, 2023August 3, 2023

Money market funds took in nearly $30 billion for the second consecutive week, pushing total

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1 Comment on Money Market Funds Set Another New Record

Amazon Rakes In Revenue, Apple Enriches More Lives

August 3, 2023August 11, 2023

Amazon had a lot of revenue in Q2. And they’re on track to have a

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8 Comments on Amazon Rakes In Revenue, Apple Enriches More Lives

Supply, Ackman, Fitch Or All Three?

August 3, 2023August 4, 2023

The bond selloff extended meaningfully on Thursday, as supply concerns, the Fitch downgrade and, at

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3 Comments on Supply, Ackman, Fitch Or All Three?

Is This The First Soft Landing Base Case On Wall Street?

August 3, 2023August 3, 2023

The US probably isn’t headed for a recession anymore. That’s according to BofA, which this

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Is America’s Services Motor ‘Sputtering’?

August 3, 2023August 4, 2023

US services sector activity expanded in July at a modest pace, data released on Thursday

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4 Comments on Is America’s Services Motor ‘Sputtering’?

Fed Gets More Good News In Under-The-Radar Macro Release

August 3, 2023August 4, 2023

US labor productivity rose the most in almost three years in Q2, data out Thursday

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3 Comments on Fed Gets More Good News In Under-The-Radar Macro Release

BoE Hikes 14th Time. Says Inflation Will Be 2% In 2025

August 3, 2023August 3, 2023

The Bank of England opted for a 25bps hike at the August policy meeting. Context

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Key Market Takeaways From The ‘Supply Steepener’ Trade

August 2, 2023

The Nasdaq bore the brunt of Wednesday’s Fitch-inspired selloff on Wall Street, and it’s no

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ReFundMe

August 2, 2023August 8, 2023

Knock on wood I suppose, but the US bond market’s reaction to Treasury’s closely-watched refunding

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5 Comments on ReFundMe

‘A Tree Falls In The Forest’: Wall Street Sees No Impact From Fitch Downgrade

August 2, 2023

Analysts, strategists and economists from around the country (and around the world) were compelled to

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1 Comment on ‘A Tree Falls In The Forest’: Wall Street Sees No Impact From Fitch Downgrade

So You Don’t Want US Debt. What Are Your Options?

August 2, 2023August 3, 2023

Exactly nobody who cared to weigh in on Wednesday believed Fitch’s decision to pull the

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5 Comments on So You Don’t Want US Debt. What Are Your Options?

America Still Hiring At Breakneck Pace Apparently

August 2, 2023August 3, 2023

For the second month in a row, ADP’s report on private sector hiring in the

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3 Comments on America Still Hiring At Breakneck Pace Apparently

The US Deserves Its Credit Downgrade

August 2, 2023August 11, 2023

While Jack Smith was busy indicting Donald Trump on Tuesday afternoon in connection with the

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6 Comments on The US Deserves Its Credit Downgrade

Conspirators

August 1, 2023August 8, 2023

No one seriously believes that Donald Trump is “innocent,” where innocent means he didn’t actually

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6 Comments on Conspirators

Record-High Stocks Seen ‘Inevitable’ Amid Summer Drift

August 1, 2023August 2, 2023

Equities are going nowhere and somewhere all at the same time. Summer can be drudgery

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Escalator Up, Elevator Down

August 1, 2023

In “Playing The Game,” I noted that one risk to somnolent summer markets is the

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1 Comment on Escalator Up, Elevator Down

Fed’s Soft Landing In Limbo After Ambiguous Job Openings Report

August 1, 2023August 8, 2023

There were 9.582 million job vacancies across the US economy on the last business day

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America’s Factory Malaise Ongoing, But No Worse

August 1, 2023August 2, 2023

Activity in the beleaguered US manufacturing sector contracted a ninth month in July, according to

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Playing The Game

August 1, 2023August 1, 2023

The so-called “strategist short squeeze” is proceeding apace. “Capitulation by stock market bears on a

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1 Comment on Playing The Game

The American Consumer At A Crossroads

July 31, 2023

The rich are pretty confident in their capacity to both obtain various forms of credit

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1 Comment on The American Consumer At A Crossroads

Equity Multiples ‘Too High’ With Rate Cuts ‘Elusive’: Kolanovic

July 31, 2023August 1, 2023

Stocks trading at 20x are too rich considering the long odds of central bank rate

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3 Comments on Equity Multiples ‘Too High’ With Rate Cuts ‘Elusive’: Kolanovic

Fed’s Loan Officer Survey Anticlimactic. Again.

July 31, 2023August 1, 2023

Market interest in the July vintage of the Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey was

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‘Bad Is Good’ Again, One Bank Finds

July 31, 2023July 31, 2023

Stocks have returned to a “bad news is good news” regime. That’s according to a

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1 Comment on ‘Bad Is Good’ Again, One Bank Finds

Mike Wilson And The 2019 Parallel

July 31, 2023August 1, 2023

Last week, I noted that at least a couple of sell-side strategists are keen to

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1 Comment on Mike Wilson And The 2019 Parallel

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • Bill W. on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • derek on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • Pyrognosis on The Diesel Question

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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