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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Xi Calls Up ‘The Butcher’ To Cut Off China Stock Rout

February 7, 2024February 8, 2024

“I heard you paint houses.” I was only half joking yesterday when I suggested Xi

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5 Comments on Xi Calls Up ‘The Butcher’ To Cut Off China Stock Rout

Meanwhile, In HELOC News

February 6, 2024February 6, 2024

Last summer, Bloomberg ran a piece documenting “the 2023 HELOC boom.” It was a human

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Don’t Look Down

February 6, 2024February 7, 2024

I haven’t counted myself among equity bears in quite a while, and I’m far from

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4 Comments on Don’t Look Down

Americans’ Credit Card Debt Hits $1.13 Trillion. Delinquencies Jump

February 6, 2024February 7, 2024

Americans scored a new record for outstanding credit card debt in Q4, when total open

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1 Comment on Americans’ Credit Card Debt Hits $1.13 Trillion. Delinquencies Jump

An ‘Epic’ Treasury Selloff, Kashkari’s Stargazing And Bad Election Optics

February 6, 2024March 4, 2024

I’m a bit reluctant to editorialize heavily around what one mainstream financial media outlet described

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6 Comments on An ‘Epic’ Treasury Selloff, Kashkari’s Stargazing And Bad Election Optics

China Turns To Xi For Advice On Stock Crisis

February 6, 2024February 7, 2024

“Ok, I’m here. What’s the problem?” “Well, sir, it’s the stocks.” “What about the stocks?”

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5 Comments on China Turns To Xi For Advice On Stock Crisis

Market Concentration Risk ‘Worse In Some Ways Than Dot-Com Bubble,’ Kolanovic Says

February 5, 2024

As discussed at some length in “Magnificent 7: Bubble Or Not?” dot-com redux warnings are

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2 Comments on Market Concentration Risk ‘Worse In Some Ways Than Dot-Com Bubble,’ Kolanovic Says

Is The Fed Behind The Curve Again?

February 5, 2024February 5, 2024

The Fed was certainly behind the curve hiking rates. Jerome Powell admitted as much during

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2 Comments on Is The Fed Behind The Curve Again?

Magnificent 7: Bubble Or Not?

February 5, 2024March 4, 2024

Time and again over the past two or three years, bears and market skeptics in

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6 Comments on Magnificent 7: Bubble Or Not?

Fed Survey Suggests Credit Crunch Fears Overblown

February 5, 2024February 6, 2024

The latest vintage of the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey was released on Monday

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US Services Sector Picks Up Steam, Underscoring Message From Jobs Report

February 5, 2024February 6, 2024

In the wake of a much improved read on the US manufacturing sector and a

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Let’s Be Honest: Jerome Powell’s Ok

February 5, 2024February 6, 2024

Did you watch Jerome Powell’s 60 Minutes interview? If not, don’t fret: It was only

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13 Comments on Let’s Be Honest: Jerome Powell’s Ok

‘Warning’: The Era Of Free Money Might Be Over Forever

February 4, 2024February 5, 2024

I always hesitate to say this or that “bothers” me. Because that’d be disingenuous. There

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2 Comments on ‘Warning’: The Era Of Free Money Might Be Over Forever

China Ramps Up Threats, Rescue Gossip With Stocks At Tipping Point

February 4, 2024February 5, 2024

The Chinese equity market is in dire straits, but don’t worry: The Party’s on it.

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4 Comments on China Ramps Up Threats, Rescue Gossip With Stocks At Tipping Point

Fed Speakers, Regional Banks In Focus After US Jobs Shocker

February 4, 2024February 5, 2024

In the days ahead, markets will hear from a veritable procession of Fed speakers who,

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‘Unambiguously’ Bullish Investors Not Contrarian Indicator. Yet

February 3, 2024February 5, 2024

It’s barely February and US equities are up 4% in 2024 already. Coming off a

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4 Comments on ‘Unambiguously’ Bullish Investors Not Contrarian Indicator. Yet

US Bombs Iranian Assets, Allies In Iraq And Syria. With More To Come

February 2, 2024March 4, 2024

Earlier this week, in a somewhat bizarre, and wholly farcical, statement, Kataib Hezbollah announced the

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Meta For The Record

February 2, 2024February 2, 2024

By noon on Friday, Meta was on track for a record. Not just a record-high

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2 Comments on Meta For The Record

Blistering Jobs Report Blindsides US Rates

February 2, 2024February 4, 2024

Needless to say, Friday’s astoundingly strong read on the US labor market rippled across the

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1 Comment on Blistering Jobs Report Blindsides US Rates

JOBS!

February 2, 2024February 8, 2024

The US economy added far (far) more jobs than expected last month and annual revisions

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13 Comments on JOBS!

Bubble Spotting

February 2, 2024February 3, 2024

The price action in 2024 suggests we’re either coming out of a recession or in

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3 Comments on Bubble Spotting

MMF AUM Hits $6 Trillion Milestone. BTFP Borrowing Falls With Arb Dead

February 1, 2024

Money market funds emphatically snapped a two-week streak of outflows with a large haul that

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Amazon, Apple, Meta Tout Results With Tech Rally On The Line

February 1, 2024February 2, 2024

Amazon reported what the company described as a record-breaking holiday quarter in results released after

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9 Comments on Amazon, Apple, Meta Tout Results With Tech Rally On The Line

The Commercial Real Estate Reckoning Is Here

February 1, 2024March 4, 2024

The best argument against the contention that the next financial crisis will be triggered by

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13 Comments on The Commercial Real Estate Reckoning Is Here

America’s Factory Recession Likely Over. Cue Higher Prices

February 1, 2024February 2, 2024

The marquee gauge of US factory activity printed well ahead of estimates on Thursday, suggesting

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1 Comment on America’s Factory Recession Likely Over. Cue Higher Prices

Fed Gets More Dovish Data As ULC Undershoots, Claims Jump Again

February 1, 2024February 2, 2024

After rising the most in three years during the prior quarter, US labor productivity notched

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1 Comment on Fed Gets More Dovish Data As ULC Undershoots, Claims Jump Again

BoE Projects Above-Target Inflation Through 2026 Even As It Softens Stance

February 1, 2024February 1, 2024

The Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday as expected, but the dissents included

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Rick Jones on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • Engineer on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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