Will Fed Hikes Catch Up To Corporates After All?

When it comes to refi penalty and roll risk, it was always (and self-evidently) a matter of how long the Fed holds terminal. The steeper your maturity wall, the less runway you have in that regard. If your funding mix depends heavily on floating-rate debt, you don't have much runway at all. The March SEP tipped the same three rate cuts for 2024 as December's dot plot, but that's not a lot of implied relief. And notwithstanding now unfashionable "sudden stop" macro narratives, it seems highly u