American consumers are feeling ok about the current state of the US economy. They aren’t so sure about the future, though.
That was the overarching takeaway from the March vintage of the Conference Board’s survey, released on Tuesday.
The headline gauge ticked down to 104.7, a marginal decline from a downwardly-revised 104.8 in February.
Context is important. Recall that the last Conference Board release found January’s sprightly increase revised sharply lower to show a more modest gain. So, in addition to reflecting a second straight monthly decline, March’s release was also notable for containing another meaningful downward revision to the prior month’s headline.
As noted above, the Present Situation Index held up well, rising to 151 from 147.6. But that was “eclipsed,” as the survey put it, by a decline on the Expectations gauge to 73.8, well below the 80 threshold that typically presages a recession within 12 months.
By income bucket, confidence among the middle class deteriorated in March, while the mood among everyone else turned up. Survey chief economist Dana Peterson noted that generally speaking, “confidence has been moving sideways with no real trend to the upside or downside either by income or age group” for six months running.
That kind of limbo isn’t the best news for the White House. The confidence bump which accompanied stocks’ rebound from the October lows (and the subsequent summit push for major US equity benchmarks) proved fleeting. It’ll take more than record-high asset prices to durably bolster the national mood apparently.
On the bright side, recession perceptions reversed a February uptick to resume a long-running trek lower. The perceived likelihood of a US downturn over the next 12 months, inclusive of those who said a recession’s “somewhat” or “very” likely, fell below 64%. The high was 73% in May of last year.
All in all, there wasn’t much to glean from Tuesday’s confidence update. Like the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment for March, the Conference Board release suggested Americans are unsure what’s next.
