“The weekend news – softer industrial production, Capex and retail sales in China, higher oil prices as Saudi Arabia and Russia agree that output cuts should be extended through Q1 2018, a North Korean ballistic missile test – sees us start in mild risk-friendly tone.”
So the elephant in the room is clearly Donald Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director James Comey who is (wait, “was”) conducting an investigation into the administration’s ties to Moscow. There’s also the imminent threat of another nuclear test from North Korea but, in a testament to how surreal the geopolitical picture has become, “nuclear war”…
It’s Tuesday, and they’re voting in South Korea. There’s an annoying power vacuum over there at a precarious time. Here’s a deliberately deadpan rundown: Turns out the former president – Park Geun-hye – was bribing people and abusing her power and shit like that. She’s in jail and apparently is refusing to vote. So that’s fun. Turnout is…
You know, sometimes you just have to laugh and Monday is undoubtedly one of those times.
I’ll confess that at this point, I’m not entirely sure what Pyongyang is thinking. There’s always been this kind of tacit understanding that the regime in North Korea is “entitled” (if you want to call it that) to a little bombast here and there. They’re even allowed to get away with a missile launch (or 75…
“What we have said from the beginning and what I’ll continue to say is the United States is not looking for a fight so don’t give us a reason to have one.”
“In the case of our super-mighty preemptive strike being launched, it will completely and immediately wipe out not only U.S. imperialists’ invasion forces in South Korea and its surrounding areas but the U.S. mainland and reduce them to ashes.”
Round of applause.
The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.
All aboard the geopolitical risk train! It took one Brexit, one Trump, a close call with Geert, 59 Tomahawk missiles, and a whole helluva lot of Pyongyang saber rattling, but everyone is finally coming around with regard to the fact that geopolitics is going to be the dominant driver of asset prices in a post-central bank…
“Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on North Korea?”
“North Korea likely attempted to fire an unidentified missile Sunday morning from Sinpo, northeast of Pyongyang, but it failed.”
Remember how about 24 hours ago everyone was sure – sure – that North Korea was going to nuke Seoul, launch “sarin-tipped” missiles at Japan, and/or wipe Hawaii off the face of the earth on Saturday, the 105th anniversary of founder and former leader Kim Il-sung? Yeah, well they didn’t. As you’ve undoubtedly heard by…
Simply put, Kim’s “NoDong” is “presumed operational.”
One of the things that gets lost in the incessant media coverage of escalating tensions in the Korean Peninsula is that this isn’t new. That’s not to say it isn’t newsworthy or that there isn’t a real threat here. But do note that Trump is playing right into Pyongyang’s hands with all the tweets and “looking for…
