“Yet, unfazed by the roll-over in activity and inflation and lower growth expectations, the Fed and the PBOC are sticking to a stubbornly hawkish path. Tighter money at a time of weaker activity poses deflationary risks and a spill-over into the real economy.”
Category: fed
The Third Mandate Is Official – And “It’s Stunning” That You Don’t See It
“This morning, at a speech at the BIS Annual General Meeting, Bill Dudley came right out and stated unequivocally that the Federal Reserve was targeting financial conditions.”
Gold Flash Crashes, “Jubilant” Germans, And Bank Bailouts
Well, gold plunged $18 in seconds on surging volume (18k contracts in a one-minute window)
When Doves Cry: Kocherlakota Is Worried That The Fed Has Abandoned You
Allison Nathan: Narayana, if inflation fails to accelerate from here, is there anything that would convince you that the Fed should get more hawkish?
Narayana Kocherlakota: No.
Barclays Sarcastically Asks: “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
Trader: “You Really Shouldn’t Make It Up As You Go Along”
“They don’t have to be governed only by the lowest common denominator. Nor forever ignore the negative externalities of oppressively low global rates and how they further suppress yields and encourage profligate risk-taking.”
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
One Trader Wishes You Would Get Your Damn Dollar Story Straight
“Wasn’t it only last week that everyone was telling us that the market was fading the FOMC’s ‘policy error?'”
Dollar Is Happy, Pound Is Sad, And There’s Some Yuan Shenanigans Afoot
It’s about Dudley for the dollar which rose to a three-week high versus the yen
SocGen: This Is The “Real Test For The Party Mood”
“Whether the Fed is raising rates too fast given their inflation mandate or not, they are raising them too slowly to contain asset price inflation. And while the FX market was getting a bit nervous, with falls for the RUB, ZAR and the TRY yesterday, the emerging bond market community was getting excited about 100-year, dollar -denominated debt issued by Argentina.”
BofAML’s Stark Warning: “Sell Before It’s Too Late”
“Is it possible that the Fed has become concerned about the recent surge in the equity market, especially tech stocks that has been feeding off low interest rates and low volatility?”
One Analyst Is “Increasingly Grouchy” About The Whole “Hawkish Hike” Thing
“Any day now, I’ll start denying that it was actually a hike at all.”
One Strategist Thinks You Should Ignore The “Prophets Of Doom”
“The Fed’s decision to tighten rates in the face of sluggish growth and limp inflation has encouraged a narrative that they are embarking on a policy error, with the flattening of the yield curve cited as a primary piece of evidence. Upon closer inspection, however, the prognostications of peril appear wide of the mark.”
“Don’t Gasp”: One Trader Has Had Enough Of Your Bullshit For One Week
It’s Friday and by this point in the week, former FX trader Richard Breslow is
“Unidentified” Dong: China Will Not Take Fed Hike “Lightly”
“And the pace is getting faster and faster. “
A 12-Chart Visual Tour Of The June Fed Statement
Here we are, one day after the Fed and people are still trying to decide
Trader: We’re Playing Tug-Of-War With A Starfish And There’s A “Reptilian Aura” To It
“Anyone who claims to know how this populism, saber-rattling and scandals will play out is fooling you as well as themselves.”
The Day After: Yellen’s Big Mistake
So here we are, the day after a Fed hike that was supposed to (and
Traders, Analysts “A Bit Surprised” Yellen Wasn’t More Dovish
“This has apparently come as a bit of a surprise to a market that had greeted this morning’s CPI report as potentially a ‘game changer.â€
Fed Hikes Rates: Redline And Full Highlights
FED MAINTAINS BALANCE SHEET REINVESTMENT, LAYS OUT UNWIND PLAN
FED RAISES TARGET RANGE FOR FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TO 1%-1.25%
FED SAYS IT EXPECTS TO START SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET THIS YEAR
FED SAYS IT’S `MONITORING INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY’
FED RAISES RATES, MAINTAINS FORECAST FOR ONE MORE HIKE IN 2017
Call Janet Yellen A Dove One More Time…
“The bond market is speaking, but most aren’t listening. It is telling us that Yellen is tightening too quickly. Or at least, she is by no means anywhere near as easy as the popular narrative.”
The Big Question: Will China Hike Tonight Following The Fed?
“This time may be different”…
Now They’ll Be More Dovish: Goldman Tweaks Fed Outlook After CPI Miss
“We now expect the FOMC statement to include a stronger acknowledgement of the recent soft inflation data, and our expectations for the Summary of Economic Projections have become incrementally more dovish.”
When To Go “Bear Hunting” In Bonds
“I’ll be focusing on that 2H pricing for clues as to when the odds are good to step in front of the raging bond bull — and when it’s a good time to go bear hunting.”
Gold Surges After Dismal Data; Do You Like Your Rate Hikes Dovish?
They better figure out how to make this hike extra dovish.
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