All told, the mood remains “risk-on.”
Category: fed
Deutsche Bank: ‘The Limit Is Near’
“This episode provides a good example of just how difficult the eventual path to policy normalization is going to be.”
Stocks Fly To Records, Global Risk Rally Continues As Bad Data, ‘Good’ Yellen Keep Hope Alive
The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.
Stocks Dare The Fed
“This puts the Fed in a terrible place”…
‘Yellen Is Not A Bubble Popper’: One Bank Is Sick Of ‘This Narrative’
“But it is not true that the Fed is hiking to address vulnerabilities in the financial system or “pop†asset bubbles.”
Investors Flee To Super-Safe Nasdaq As Rate Hike Odds Fall After CPI Miss
“Guess what people immediately did? Why, they fled to the “safety” of overvalued, high-flying tech stocks, that’s what they did.”
Trader: ‘Everyone Is Wrong But Me’
“And now? Dovish Fed speak, wavering ECB leaks, resolute BOJ actions, completely mixed emotions from the BOE and suddenly it doesn’t feel nearly as fun.”
Dow Closes At Record High – So Does Central Banker Confusion
So yeah, another day, another largely fruitless effort to figure out what exactly the message
Trader: ‘Conspiracy Theories’ Only Work If Everyone Sticks To The Script
“But they seem to cling to the notion that they must do so without any knock-on effects to the broader category of assets. They do so love the calming sounds from the trickle-down effect.”
‘The End Result Are These Violent Whipsaws’: Don’t Think Too Hard
“This Fed transparency has become more of a liability than an asset. Instead of providing policy clarity, it creates confusion as various factions of the Federal Reserve board debate their positions in a public forum.’
Stocks Surge On ‘Good Cop’ Yellen; Trader Makes ‘Unprecedented’ $10 Million Bond Bet
Well, the message from Yellen was heard loud and clear and amusingly, so was the
One Trader’s Advice To Yellen: Get Your Motherfuckin’ ‘Roll’ On…
“I’d settle for here’s what were going to do because it’s the right thing to do. And we’ll deal with what comes if necessary, that’s how we roll.”
‘Beware Global Tapering’: Behold The ‘Safe Bond Supply Shock’
What effect will Fed balance sheet normalization have on Treasury yields? That’s quickly becoming something
‘They Immediately Bought Dollars’: Traders Get Confused, Drive Yen To March Lows
Well, the overnight session was described as “listless” by at least one Asia-based trader as
One Trader Is Already ‘Outraged’ And It’s Only Monday
“I’m also outraged.”
Hedge Funds Now Most Net Short 2Y Since 2007
Yeah so, this is worth noting as you ride off into the weekend sunset..
Fed Minutes: Key Points And Highlights
Read them, parse them, take them to your local palm reader…
‘The Ultimate Negative Feedback Loop’
“With asset prices so well correlated to financial conditions now, being too hawkish – and instigating market tantrums – creates the ultimate negative feedback loop.”
Mind The ‘Transatlantic Convergence’ Theme
“One of the things we hear discussed a lot is that an inverted yield curve tends to be a good predictor of recessions, but that’s because it comes at the same time as peak Fed Funds, and ‘peak tight money’ is a good predictor of recessions for more obvious reasons.”
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
“Where It All Goes Wrong”
” Ultimately it all depends on inflation and growth but whether or not these are structurally driven or endogenous to the Fed’s and other central banks policy rhetoric remains to be seen. We remain skeptical!”
One Trader Doesn’t Like Your “Hyperbole,” But He’ll Let It Slide As Long As You Don’t Mistake A Passing Pigeon For “Paree”
“It’s been a week filled with hyperbole. Trial balloons dressed up as pre-commitments. A little volatility described in cataclysmic terms and compared to jarring historical market upsets.”
Trader: “Black Swan Events Happen A Lot More Often Than They’re Supposed To”
“The Fed has enjoyed free-ridership of doing so while everyone else is still printing away. This has meant that financial market conditions have taken it wholly in stride. To assert that this will be the case when everyone else join is making a big assumption about the efficacy of the cure.”
About That Fed “Policy Mistake”…
“The thesis that the Fed has made a policy error would seem to imply two claims: that the Fed’s hawkish stance has led to excessive tightening in financial conditions, and that this in turn has caused the economy to slow more than intended. Neither of these has happened.”
Trader Delivers Celebratory Warning: “We’re About To Have A Two-Way Market Again”
“It was no small feat. And the fact that it was very much a global phenomenon makes it all the more significant. Investors should have been jolted into the realization that we just might be about to enjoy the healthy benefits of a two-way market.”
Euro Surges On Draghi’s “Three Messages,” Dollar Eyes Janet, Yuan “Suddenly” Jumps
Boy, I’ll tell you what, if you’re a central banker and you’re going to say
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