US job openings undershot meaningfully in key labor market data released Tuesday. There were 7.6
Category: economy
Nascent US Manufacturing Recovery Marred By Inflation Jitters
Behold: A ray of sunshine through the trade storm clouds. The marquee gauge of US
Traders Brace As Crowded Data Docket Collides With Tariff Drama
Tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. That’s a preview of what you can expect from financial
Tariffs Aren’t A Free Lunch
Love’s famously blind, but generally speaking, people know a lot about the things they love.
Forget The Data, What About The Tariffs?
The last of this week’s key US macro releases printed largely in line with consensus.
Americans Spend Their Asses Off
Americans were spending their asses off in Q4, preliminary US GDP data released on Thursday
Pending Home Sales Crash As High Rates Bite Back
As it turns out, you can’t afford what you can’t afford. Imagine that, right? Pending
ECB Cuts Again As Europe Faces Recession, Political Crises
“Unexpected.” That’s how a handful of mainstream media outlets described news that the euro-zone economy
Fed On Hold Amid Stubborn Inflation, Dense Trade War Fog
Unable to see their hands in front of their faces in some of the densest
‘Trump Bump’ MIA In Consumer Confidence Data
Consumer confidence looked a little shaky in second-tier US macro data released on Tuesday. The
Annual Home Price Growth Picks Up First Time In Eight Months
Homes. They’re expensive! Half a million dollars worth of expensive if you want something half-decent
What To Expect From The January FOMC Meeting
A pause. I hate to spoil the suspense, and I’m legendary for burying the lede,
US Flaunts Economic Brawn As World Struggles
This’ll be a fairly busy week for traders. In addition to the January FOMC meeting
Stock Bubble Is ‘Self-Fulfilling Catalyst’ For American Exceptionalism
Here’s a chicken-egg quandary for you: Which came first, US macro exceptionalism or US equity
How America’s Housing Crisis Fueled A Boom In Stocks And Crypto
I wrote earlier Friday about US housing. Again. Again squared. Then cubed. The vexing circumstances
In US Housing: The Worst Year Since 1995
Now we’re gettin’ somewhere! Maybe lose the exclamation point, though. Existing home sales in the
Oops! US Services Sector Activity Cools Dramatically
“Output growth slows in January and price pressures rise,” S&P Global said Friday, summarizing what
Japan Beats Deflation. Now What About China?
There’s good news for China: It is possible to exit deflation. It just takes a
Overblown Claims
Initial US jobless claims rose a second week, handily topping estimates in the process, according
US Home Purchases Fall Through At Record Rate On Cost Burden
Hopelessly-stretched would-be US homeowners caught a small break over the last week, as financing costs
Trump’s Term Premium Problem
2025’s not 2017. The distinction matters for the Trump administration’s domestic policy agenda, and specifically
Trump Inherits Goldilocks US Economy In ‘Sweet Spot’
“There’s a Goldilocks flavor to it.” So said Goldman’s Jan Hatzius in a note published
‘Tariff Man’ Eschews Day One Tariffs
“Tariff Man” isn’t imposing any new tariffs. Yet. Donald Trump won’t slap the world with
Population Frustration
Demographics: They matter. For all kinds of reasons, not least of which is that if
Great 2020s Bond Bear Makes History
History. You’re witnessing it. You witness history by default, every day, but when we carry
Xi Or Your Lyin’ Eyes?
“Overall, the recovery is tentatively sustained in a still-fragile mode.” So said SocGen’s Wei Yao
Avoid The Tails, Stick The Landing
For traders and investors (and yes, those are two distinct classes of market participants), the
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