Late last week, I said it’d be ironic if “US exceptionalism” peaked in 2024 and
Category: Duly Noted
Is 2025 ‘Buy America’ Credo Too Consensus To Be Right?
If you chart the relative performance of US equities versus global shares excluding US stocks,
This Is The ‘True Source’ Of Mag7 Magnificence
The episode known in market circles as the “DeepSeek shock” was an unwelcome reminder: Capex
‘Run Your Models’: Trump Forces Fed To Do The Tariff Math
Higher prices. That’s the answer if the question is about the macro read-through of Donald
Who Has The Burden Of Proof, DeepSeek Or US Hyperscalers?
Who shoulders the burden of proof? That’s a key question for investors pondering the prospect
Adventures In Bond Land, Annotated
I’ve said it how many times? The rapidity and reason for a given move higher
It’s (Still) The Liquidity, Stupid
What’s the difference between explaining something and explaining something away? Not much, in my experience.
Justifying A Bubble
I wrote twice already this week about corporate balance sheets and the accrued blessings of
Spot-Up, Vol-Up And The VIX Squeeze Risk That Just Won’t Die
There’s a “monster vibe shift” afoot across thematic macro trades, where last week’s round of
This Time Was Different In At Least One ‘Shocking’ Respect
Earlier this week, in “As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared,” I took
Is Kneecapping China A Good Idea?
At this point, I should probably apologize to Beijing for beating the dead horse that
Will The Mag7 Ever Be ‘Tired Of Winning’?
One of the (precious) few bear cases leveled against America’s mightiest mega-caps says some of
CPI Rally Saw ‘Constructive’ Shift In Equities Options
One apple (which in this case means one bad session for Apple) might’ve spoiled the
Chasing The (American) Dream
Lost on Wednesday in a barrage of (for once favorable) inflation headlines and (for once
Capex Boom, Like Everything Else, Is A Mag7 Story
First thing this week, in “The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance,” I cited capex and
Fed Gets Second Worrisome Inflation Expectations Update In Two Sessions
There was more evidence Monday that Americans’ medium-term inflation expectations are drifting higher (again) amid
Cash Cult Keeps Gathering Adherents
If you’re curious, money market funds kicked off the new year with a big inflow.
Risk Of US Stock Drawdown Rises To One In Three
The risk of a meaningful stock pullback’s elevated. You can tell because… well, have you
FOMC Minutes Betray Early Concern Over Tariffs, Deportations
During last month’s press conference, Jerome Powell went out of his way to suggest upward
How Leveraged ETFs Feed The Beast
I’ve spoken at some length recently about the extent to which modern market structure and
US Dominance Of Global Equity Market Reaches Existential Extremes
If your business is stocks, the US is all that matters. As 2025 dawned, the
Stock Bull Out Of Patience With Bond Bear, Wilson Warns
And the most important variable for stock performance in January is — drumroll — rates.
Options Show No Fear Of New Stock Melt-Up
They’re hedging downside, but nobody’s especially concerned about missing the boat on a prospective new
US Money Fund Assets Edge Closer To $7 Trillion
A strong year for money market fund flows was set to go out with a
Risk-Loving Fund Managers May Be Contrarian ‘Sell’ Signal
If a pullback in US stocks is imminent, don’t say you weren’t warned. In contrarian
The $6.75 Trillion Question
It’s been a helluva year for money market funds. With just just seven business days
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