What’s the proximate cause of America’s “losing” ways when it comes to international commerce, to
Category: Duly Noted
Everyone’s In The Pool. But No Splash Yet
Late last week, Goldman’s Scott Rubner cautioned that “everyone’s in the pool.” By that he
Record-Low Cash Levels Scream ‘Sell!’
Don’t look now, but cash levels among professional money managers just ticked a 15-year low
Record Retail Dip-Buying Won’t Last, Popular Strategist Cautions
So far in 2025, the retail crowd’s buying every dip. That’s according to Goldman’s Scott
Fed Policy’s Not Restrictive No Matter How Many Times Powell Says Otherwise
I don’t love this talking point, and even if I did, it feels exhausted by
Corporate America Clears The Bar. Again.
Earnings season’s nearly over. Except for Nvidia. Which is about like saying football season’s over
Don’s Dollar Dilemma
“The strong-dollar policy is completely intact with President Trump.” So said Scott Bessent on Thursday,
Why Trump Actually Needs Less ‘US Exceptionalism’
Late last week, I said it’d be ironic if “US exceptionalism” peaked in 2024 and
Is 2025 ‘Buy America’ Credo Too Consensus To Be Right?
If you chart the relative performance of US equities versus global shares excluding US stocks,
This Is The ‘True Source’ Of Mag7 Magnificence
The episode known in market circles as the “DeepSeek shock” was an unwelcome reminder: Capex
‘Run Your Models’: Trump Forces Fed To Do The Tariff Math
Higher prices. That’s the answer if the question is about the macro read-through of Donald
Who Has The Burden Of Proof, DeepSeek Or US Hyperscalers?
Who shoulders the burden of proof? That’s a key question for investors pondering the prospect
Adventures In Bond Land, Annotated
I’ve said it how many times? The rapidity and reason for a given move higher
It’s (Still) The Liquidity, Stupid
What’s the difference between explaining something and explaining something away? Not much, in my experience.
Justifying A Bubble
I wrote twice already this week about corporate balance sheets and the accrued blessings of
Spot-Up, Vol-Up And The VIX Squeeze Risk That Just Won’t Die
There’s a “monster vibe shift” afoot across thematic macro trades, where last week’s round of
This Time Was Different In At Least One ‘Shocking’ Respect
Earlier this week, in “As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared,” I took
Is Kneecapping China A Good Idea?
At this point, I should probably apologize to Beijing for beating the dead horse that
Will The Mag7 Ever Be ‘Tired Of Winning’?
One of the (precious) few bear cases leveled against America’s mightiest mega-caps says some of
CPI Rally Saw ‘Constructive’ Shift In Equities Options
One apple (which in this case means one bad session for Apple) might’ve spoiled the
Chasing The (American) Dream
Lost on Wednesday in a barrage of (for once favorable) inflation headlines and (for once
Capex Boom, Like Everything Else, Is A Mag7 Story
First thing this week, in “The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance,” I cited capex and
Fed Gets Second Worrisome Inflation Expectations Update In Two Sessions
There was more evidence Monday that Americans’ medium-term inflation expectations are drifting higher (again) amid
Cash Cult Keeps Gathering Adherents
If you’re curious, money market funds kicked off the new year with a big inflow.
Risk Of US Stock Drawdown Rises To One In Three
The risk of a meaningful stock pullback’s elevated. You can tell because… well, have you
FOMC Minutes Betray Early Concern Over Tariffs, Deportations
During last month’s press conference, Jerome Powell went out of his way to suggest upward
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