If you’re immersed in the market narrative — and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be
Category: Duly Noted
Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade
What’s the “pain trade” in US assets going forward? If you read “The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis
‘Trump Put’ May Be Struck As Low As SPX 5200
Investors bought the dip in US equities to the tune of $34 billion, but maybe
Global Stocks Haven’t Been This Out Of Sync Since The 1990s
Not since the 1990s have regional equities diverged to the extent they have today. That
JPMorgan Says US Stock Valuations ‘Structurally Higher’
US stocks are expensive. Maybe you heard. Maybe you noticed. Maybe you bought them anyway.
Cash, Tariffs And DOGE
Did you buy the (re)dip? Wall Street struggled on Tuesday to extend a two-session rally
Wilson, Kostin Both Cautious As Wall Street Wavers
Any recovery for US equities — which last week sank into correction territory before recovering
Is The US Stock Correction Over?
Is the US stock correction over? That’s the question for everyone with nothing better to
Money Pours Into European Stocks As ‘US Exceptionalism’ Slams Into Reverse
It started with performance. Now it’s manifesting in flows. The reversal of the “US exceptionalism”
What The PMs Are Thinking
Look, I’m a simple man. Not really. I’m actually so complicated that even I don’t
Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast On ‘Considerably More Adverse’ Tariff Policy
Don’t look now, but Goldman’s forecast for US economic growth is below blue-chip consensus all
‘Extreme’ US Policies Risk ‘Ugly’ American Exceptionalism
Way back last month, JPMorgan described three types of US economic exceptionalism: “Good,” “bad” and
Is Mr. Market Already Tired Of The Bullsh-t?
Whatever happens on jobs Friday and thereafter, the price action on Wall Street this week
‘Trump Put’ Struck At SPX 5555, One Bank Says
Where’s the so-called “Trump put” struck? Said differently, what’s the pain threshold for equity losses
US Corporate Profits Aren’t What You Think
Over the weekend, I talked a bit about the read-through of suddenly soft US macro
Doubt Creeps Into EPS Growth Forecasts As US Economy Stutters
The nascent US economic slowdown unfurling across a number of key macro metrics and indicators
The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings
Nvidia suffered a rocky — albeit not exactly disastrous — post-earnings trade on Thursday, when
About Those Leveraged ETFs…
“Gamblers.” That’s how Bloomberg described market participants who avail themselves of leveraged ETFs in a
0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent
Not so long ago, you could scarcely go a day without reading something, somewhere in
It All Comes Back To The Dollar
What’s the proximate cause of America’s “losing” ways when it comes to international commerce, to
Everyone’s In The Pool. But No Splash Yet
Late last week, Goldman’s Scott Rubner cautioned that “everyone’s in the pool.” By that he
Record-Low Cash Levels Scream ‘Sell!’
Don’t look now, but cash levels among professional money managers just ticked a 15-year low
Record Retail Dip-Buying Won’t Last, Popular Strategist Cautions
So far in 2025, the retail crowd’s buying every dip. That’s according to Goldman’s Scott
Fed Policy’s Not Restrictive No Matter How Many Times Powell Says Otherwise
I don’t love this talking point, and even if I did, it feels exhausted by
Corporate America Clears The Bar. Again.
Earnings season’s nearly over. Except for Nvidia. Which is about like saying football season’s over
Don’s Dollar Dilemma
“The strong-dollar policy is completely intact with President Trump.” So said Scott Bessent on Thursday,
Why Trump Actually Needs Less ‘US Exceptionalism’
Late last week, I said it’d be ironic if “US exceptionalism” peaked in 2024 and
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