I’ve been on at some length since “Liberation Day” about the extent to which the
Category: Duly Noted
No One Likes Uncertainty
This may not have occurred to every “very stable genius” in the world, but deliberately
Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?
A little over a month ago, JPMorgan suggested US equity valuations reset structurally higher over
Who Sold US Stocks?
Who is Colonel Mustard, in the library, with a candlestick? This is Jeopardy, you took
Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens
It’s too stupid, I can’t take it. Or at least not without laughing at something
The Problem With ‘Big Move’ Days
I’ll keep this one short, but I did want to mention April 21’s Wall Street
Why Good News May Not Be Enough To Make Stocks Rally Again
What if we get good news? On tariffs or, say, on Mag7 earnings. We know
Risk Tolerance Evaporates With Liquidity
Liquidity. It’s topical. Because it’s impaired. That’s the thing about liquidity: When it’s in the
Are The Machines Done Selling?
Early Monday, I revisited “doom loop” dynamics. A fixture of modern market structure is the
Wharton Budget Model Projects Disastrous Hit To Families, GDP From Trump Tariffs
The math’s done. The verdict’s in. Tariffs are guilty as charged. On Thursday, the Penn
Trump’s ‘High People Idea’ Would Double Cost Of iPhones
Dave Chappelle’s in the news this week. As someone who was relatively young (I mean,
What Just Happened To US Treasurys?
What happened to the US long-end on Monday? That was the question — or one
US Stocks Saw Second Week Of Outflows In Tariff Unveil Lead-Up
If you were wondering, US equities saw more outflows in the lead up to “Liberation
Bad Apple?
Bill Gross doesn’t think you should buy the dip. “Investors should not try to ‘catch
2025’s Treasury Rally Is ‘Clear Nod To Stagflation’
Donald Trump and Scott Bessent wanted to get 10-year US Treasury yields down, and they
Who’s Really Ready For A De-Globalized World?
Virtue signaling. I hear it a lot from some corners of Wall Street these days
More ‘Correction Reflections’
If you’re immersed in the market narrative — and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be
Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade
What’s the “pain trade” in US assets going forward? If you read “The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis
‘Trump Put’ May Be Struck As Low As SPX 5200
Investors bought the dip in US equities to the tune of $34 billion, but maybe
Global Stocks Haven’t Been This Out Of Sync Since The 1990s
Not since the 1990s have regional equities diverged to the extent they have today. That
JPMorgan Says US Stock Valuations ‘Structurally Higher’
US stocks are expensive. Maybe you heard. Maybe you noticed. Maybe you bought them anyway.
Cash, Tariffs And DOGE
Did you buy the (re)dip? Wall Street struggled on Tuesday to extend a two-session rally
Wilson, Kostin Both Cautious As Wall Street Wavers
Any recovery for US equities — which last week sank into correction territory before recovering
Is The US Stock Correction Over?
Is the US stock correction over? That’s the question for everyone with nothing better to
Money Pours Into European Stocks As ‘US Exceptionalism’ Slams Into Reverse
It started with performance. Now it’s manifesting in flows. The reversal of the “US exceptionalism”
What The PMs Are Thinking
Look, I’m a simple man. Not really. I’m actually so complicated that even I don’t
Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast On ‘Considerably More Adverse’ Tariff Policy
Don’t look now, but Goldman’s forecast for US economic growth is below blue-chip consensus all
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