As discussed here on Tuesday morning, I think the odds of a Fed cut at
Category: Duly Noted
Risky Business
Donald Trump’s a risky proposition. Just in general, but particularly as President of the United
Max Madman Theory
On June 18, The Daily Beast ran a pretty funny headline: “Trump Boasts ‘Nobody Knows
Pray For The Profits
Are you sure? Not enough US voters asked themselves that question on November 5, 2024,
What History Says About Stocks And Geopolitical Shocks
In the latest Weekly, I argued that even if the 2025 Israel-Iran war lives up
Claims Canary
I’m always cautious about declaring a turning point for US jobless claims. Each and every
‘Monetary Malpractice’
Unfortunately, JD Vance is weighing in on US monetary policy now too. “Too” meaning in
Are Global Equities Overbought?
Are global stocks overbought? You’d be forgiven for asking, wouldn’t you? After all, the world’s
A $34 Billion Breakup
$34 billion. That was the damage for Elon Musk when the closing bell sounded on
Bonds, CPI Collection And Columbia
The good news about bad data is that if it’s bad enough, it can spell
Why One Bank Expects The Dollar Bear Market To Deepen
The dollar’s headed lower, particularly against other havens, including the yen, franc and euro. That’s
Do Foreign Investors Really Have ‘Too Much’ US Exposure?
There’s still no consensus on whether and to what extent Donald Trump’s policies — from
Terms And Conditions
I’ve spent a ton of time since “Liberation Day” talking about the term premium, and
‘Sell America’ Vibe Hard To Ignore Despite ‘TINA’ Legacy
Maybe the “sell America” narrative’s overdone, maybe it isn’t, but one thing’s for sure: Europe-focused
Well Hello, Liz!
The mid-week selloff at the long-end of the US Treasury curve was exactly what Scott
Fearing The Right-Tail
If you’re wondering whether the bounce in US equities which had the S&P trading within
Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues
The flows rotation out of US shares and into RoW equities paused over the last
Not Out Of The Woods
The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most
Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?
Gold. Every time I mention it, somebody gets pissed at me. With the possible exception
To Hell And Back Again?
To hell and back again. That’s one way to describe the last three or so
Efficiency Problems
The BLS on Thursday delivered a sobering read on productivity and unit labor costs. Suffice
Who Wants To Live In D.C.?
Mortgage rates in the US were lower over the past week on average. By a
Waiting On The Robots
It’s important to preface this brief update (500 words counts as “brief” ’round these parts)
The Machines Should Be Buying Stocks From Here
I’ve been on at some length since “Liberation Day” about the extent to which the
No One Likes Uncertainty
This may not have occurred to every “very stable genius” in the world, but deliberately
Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?
A little over a month ago, JPMorgan suggested US equity valuations reset structurally higher over
Who Sold US Stocks?
Who is Colonel Mustard, in the library, with a candlestick? This is Jeopardy, you took
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