Turkey’s central bank, under new leadership, nearly doubled interest rates on Thursday in a hotly-anticipated
Category: Duly Noted
A Fundamental Addendum
I’ve mentioned this on several occasions previous, and I mention again only as an addendum
Corporate America Faces ‘Imminent’ Downturn In Revenue Growth
Determining when (or even if) US corporate profits will suffer a deeper contraction entails making
The Status Of The ‘Liquidity Drain’ Bear Case
What happened to the “liquidity drain” bear case? Asked the curious market participants. I’ve fielded
CTA Stock Longs, Risk Parity Leverage Highest In A Year
Rules-based, systematic investor cohorts and vol-sensitive strategies have increased their equity exposure and leverage to
FOMO > FOMC: Is The Pain Trade Still Higher?
Is the pain trade still higher? That’ll be a key question going forward for ebullient
US Stock Funds Get Biggest Inflow In 26 Weeks Amid Bull Market
The flows-performance question is always a bit of a chicken-egg dilemma (which comes first?) and
Money Market Funds See Rare Outflow. Banks Tap Fed Facility For $102 Billion
I won’t overinterpret because to do so would be to risk drawing spurious conclusions. With
How Credible Are The Fed’s Hawkish Dots?
US equities were poised to “defy the naysayers” while “looking through” the hawkish set of
Crowded Trades And Painful Scenarios
It comes as no surprise that the most crowded trade on the planet is long
No Country For Call Sellers
US equities came into the June FOMC meeting not just in melt-up mode, but in
‘Should’ve Known Better’: Companies Still Have An Inventory Problem
Everything is obvious in hindsight, so we should perhaps hesitate before we insist that policymakers
Markets Are Giving Up On China’s Recovery Story
While editorializing around reports that top Chinese policymakers are mulling new stimulus measures to bolster
The August Risk
If you’re wondering whether the nascent bull market in US equities risks making the Fed’s
Ominous Harbinger Or Sunny Bellwether?
Last month, at the height of the A.I. frenzy, big-cap US tech’s outperformance to domestic
Deutsche’s Kocic Details Trading ‘Paralysis,’ Disappearing RV
A “toxic combination” of factors has conspired to create “stifling” trading conditions in rates, where
A Market Timing Reality Check
They say the most important things in life are free. Sometimes, they’re also the most
Will The Flows Floodgates Reopen For Stocks?
Sympathetic as I (pretty plainly) am to the bear case for an equity market trading
Money Fund Assets Near $5.5 Trillion. Usage Of Fed’s Bank Backstop Hits $100 Billion
Already inundated money market funds took in another $37 billion in the week to June
Market’s Favorite Bear Case Considered Valid Until Proven Otherwise
I doubt most readers need another point/counterpoint exercise around what Deutsche Bank described this week
Three Good News Inflation Stories
On a day when a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Canada (amplified by
Why One Bank Isn’t Buying The ‘Liquidity Scare’ Bear Case
The relative importance of liquidity versus fundamentals as determinants of risk assets is everywhere and
There’s Always A Disconnect Somewhere
Stocks are disconnected from the macro. How often have you heard that in your investing
‘Worst Liquidity Contraction Since Lehman’ Adds To Bear Case
As most readers have doubtlessly surmised, the tech-driven rally in US equities has done exactly
Concentrating On Concentration
Just how concentrated is the US equity market? Well, the most concentrated ever on at
Top Strategist Sees ‘Moment Of Recognition’ For US Stocks
For just the fifth time in nearly a quarter century, the forward earnings growth forecast
Imminent Global Liquidity Drain Estimated At Up To $1.5 Trillion
It’s time for your weekly liquidity warning. Late last month, I walked back through a
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