For all the talk of a “FOMO”-driven equity rally, plain old fear is still more
Category: Duly Noted
Worst-Case Liquidity Outcome Averted. But Risks Remain
There’s still a ~$1 trillion question hanging over markets: How much Treasury issuance will ultimately
What The Nasdaq 100 Special Rebalance Means For Investors
Overconcentration is one of 2023’s key themes amid an epic rally in the same handful
What Happens To ‘Excuseflation’ When There’s No Excuse?
Lost in the euphoria around the slowdown in consumer price growth and apparently imminent producer
Equity Fund Flows Suggest Imminent Capitulation ‘Back In’
Inflows to equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds persisted for another week, suggesting left-behind investor cohorts
Money Market Funds Back To Outflows. RRP Lowest In 15 Months
Money market fund flows are starting to get choppy. After a mammoth inflow last week,
US Home Prices, Mortgage Payments Notch Simultaneous Records
Mortgage rates in the US are a whisker away from a seven-handle, but home prices
Is The Inflation Battle Won?
It’s possible that Wednesday’s CPI release in the US marked a turning point in the
Fed Faces Market Eager For Last Hike
Backing away from the inflation fight too soon would be a recipe for disaster. That’s
Irrelevant Playbooks?
How is this cycle different? Let me count the ways. On second thought, let me
Small Businesses Offer More Cautious Evidence Of Disinflation
If it’s more incremental, under-the-radar evidence to support the disinflation narrative you’re after, the latest
Is The US Consumer Finally Exhausted?
Americans are dialing back on borrowing in the face of economic uncertainty and higher financing
Big Drop In Used Car Prices Helps Disinflation Stars Align
There was more incrementally good news on the inflation front Monday in the US, when
Liquidity And One Great Narrative
2023’s US equity rally is all about two things (and they aren’t mutually exclusive): The
Huge Disparity Opens Between Year-End Stock Forecasts
Some readers are probably tired, by now, of hearing me insist on the futility of
US Equity Funds Get Second-Biggest Inflow Of 2023 As H2 Dawns
After two weeks of withdrawals, money flowed back into US stock-focused ETFs and mutual funds,
Money Fund Assets Surge To New Record
Money market funds snapped a three-week streak of outflows with an emphatic, $43.7 billion haul
The ‘Perils Of Euphoric Expectations’
The biggest complaint I have with the A.I. “bubble” narrative is also the simplest: The
How Expensive Are US Stocks?
How expensive are US equities? That’s a bit of a clichéd question, admittedly. It’s made
The Flows Backdrop For The Great Bond Debate
On Tuesday morning, I walked through the “debate” between Bill Dudley and Morgan Stanley’s US
Cognac And Shelter Inflation
The Fed is counting on a decline in US shelter inflation. If that doesn’t pan
How Much Did The Machines Buy?
How important were systematics in perpetuating and sustaining the equity rally during the second quarter?
What Worked In The First Half (Almost Everything)
2023 is halfway over. Time flies, unfortunately. Just yesterday I was a day younger. It
US Stock Funds See More Outflows As Sugar High Wanes
In another testament to the notion that some of the thrill is gone for US
Money Market Outflows Slow. Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hits Another Record
Money market funds saw outflows for a third consecutive week, but the pace slowed. Nearly
Bear Flattener Still Pain Trade Amid Scorching US Data
This quick take won’t win me any awards for riveting storytelling, but I’d be totally
Biden May Escalate China Tech War With Updated Chip Ban
To the extent corporations are inclined to pretend there’s something ambiguous about the Biden administration’s
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