Backing away from the inflation fight too soon would be a recipe for disaster. That’s
Category: Duly Noted
Irrelevant Playbooks?
How is this cycle different? Let me count the ways. On second thought, let me
Small Businesses Offer More Cautious Evidence Of Disinflation
If it’s more incremental, under-the-radar evidence to support the disinflation narrative you’re after, the latest
Is The US Consumer Finally Exhausted?
Americans are dialing back on borrowing in the face of economic uncertainty and higher financing
Big Drop In Used Car Prices Helps Disinflation Stars Align
There was more incrementally good news on the inflation front Monday in the US, when
Liquidity And One Great Narrative
2023’s US equity rally is all about two things (and they aren’t mutually exclusive): The
Huge Disparity Opens Between Year-End Stock Forecasts
Some readers are probably tired, by now, of hearing me insist on the futility of
US Equity Funds Get Second-Biggest Inflow Of 2023 As H2 Dawns
After two weeks of withdrawals, money flowed back into US stock-focused ETFs and mutual funds,
Money Fund Assets Surge To New Record
Money market funds snapped a three-week streak of outflows with an emphatic, $43.7 billion haul
The ‘Perils Of Euphoric Expectations’
The biggest complaint I have with the A.I. “bubble” narrative is also the simplest: The
How Expensive Are US Stocks?
How expensive are US equities? That’s a bit of a clichéd question, admittedly. It’s made
The Flows Backdrop For The Great Bond Debate
On Tuesday morning, I walked through the “debate” between Bill Dudley and Morgan Stanley’s US
Cognac And Shelter Inflation
The Fed is counting on a decline in US shelter inflation. If that doesn’t pan
How Much Did The Machines Buy?
How important were systematics in perpetuating and sustaining the equity rally during the second quarter?
What Worked In The First Half (Almost Everything)
2023 is halfway over. Time flies, unfortunately. Just yesterday I was a day younger. It
US Stock Funds See More Outflows As Sugar High Wanes
In another testament to the notion that some of the thrill is gone for US
Money Market Outflows Slow. Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hits Another Record
Money market funds saw outflows for a third consecutive week, but the pace slowed. Nearly
Bear Flattener Still Pain Trade Amid Scorching US Data
This quick take won’t win me any awards for riveting storytelling, but I’d be totally
Biden May Escalate China Tech War With Updated Chip Ban
To the extent corporations are inclined to pretend there’s something ambiguous about the Biden administration’s
Rationalizing The Unreal
“Equities are detached!” laments are admittedly tired, usually clichéd and rarely useful. The problem with
Stocks Need A ‘Soft No Landing’
Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia may be loosening, but the US labor market isn’t. Or
The Straightforward Case For A Modest Selloff On Wall Street
The best argument for a pullback on Wall Street may be the simplest: There hasn’t
Checking The Taiwan Barometer
When it comes to global growth canaries, you could do worse than Asian exports and
Have We Seen The Merciful Last Of Front-End Rates Fireworks?
If you’re looking for a good news story told from a broad, societal perspective, I’m
Investors Ditch Tech, Flee US Stock Funds As Euphoria Wanes
If flows are a proxy for enthusiasm, excitement around 2023’s tech-driven equity rally waned over
Money Market Outflows Accelerate, But Interpretation Difficult
Cash left money market funds for a second consecutive week in an ostensibly notable development
What 2023’s Dot-Com-Style Breadth Collapse Means For Drawdown Risk
2023’s US equity rally is narrow. That’s an understatement. And it’s not news. Quite a
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