Is The US Consumer Finally Exhausted?

Americans are dialing back on borrowing in the face of economic uncertainty and higher financing costs, data released late Monday suggested.

The figures, from the Fed, are reported on what may as well be a two-month delay, relegating them to third-tier status despite their ostensible relevance at a time when macro watchers are keen for any incremental information on consumer psychology.

Revolving credit rose just $8.5 billion in May, the smallest increase in three months and the second-smallest since October of 2021.

Commercial bank card rates are now nearly 21%, the highest in at least half a century.

NY Fed data released in May showed Americans’ card balances were flat at $986 billion in the first quarter. It was the first Q1 in the (relatively short) history of the dataset during which the nation’s credit card balance didn’t decrease. Americans were the proud owners of a record 573 million credit card accounts at the end of the quarter.

Monday’s figures showed non-revolving credit, like student and car loans, fell for the first time since April of 2020, when the nation was still reeling from the onset of the pandemic and associated economic tumult.

The aggregate increase in consumer credit in May was $7.2 billion. That was nowhere near consensus, which expected a $20 billion increase. It was the smallest monthly gain since November of 2020.

The consumer credit figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.


 

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