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Author: therealheisenberg

Chasing The (American) Dream

January 15, 2025January 15, 2025

Lost on Wednesday in a barrage of (for once favorable) inflation headlines and (for once

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A Bridge To Nowhere

January 15, 2025January 16, 2025

“The people of Gaza can finally recover and rebuild.” So said Joe Biden on Wednesday,

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9 Comments on A Bridge To Nowhere

It Pays To Be A Bank

January 15, 2025January 16, 2025

Banks. It’s good to be one. Quarterly results from a handful of majors on Wednesday

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4 Comments on It Pays To Be A Bank

Every Dove Has Its Day

January 15, 2025January 16, 2025

Markets were absolutely enamored with Wednesday’s inflation report out of the US. Bonds were the

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8 Comments on Every Dove Has Its Day

America’s ‘Normal Economic People’ Still Screwed By Inflation

January 15, 2025January 16, 2025

I’m not sure I’d call Wednesday’s all-important inflation update out of the US “comforting.” Although

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3 Comments on America’s ‘Normal Economic People’ Still Screwed By Inflation

JPMorgan’s Doing Fine, If You Were Wondering

January 15, 2025January 15, 2025

Remember: Volatility’s a boon if your business (or one of your businesses) is facilitating trades.

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6 Comments on JPMorgan’s Doing Fine, If You Were Wondering

January Effects

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

So far, January hasn’t been especially kind to previously-buoyant equities. Global shares are down 1%

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7 Comments on January Effects

Two Key Stock Performance Drivers (And One ‘Quite Depressing’ Chart)

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

Let’s say you want to explain stock returns and performance. What factors matter? You could

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1 Comment on Two Key Stock Performance Drivers (And One ‘Quite Depressing’ Chart)

Key Systematic Strats Shed $92 Billion Of Stock Exposure Since FOMC Meeting

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

Is the stock pullback over? I doubt it, and now that you mention it, I

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2 Comments on Key Systematic Strats Shed $92 Billion Of Stock Exposure Since FOMC Meeting

Wholesale Price Growth Slows In Welcome News For Battered Bonds

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

Good news for the melancholic, inflation fatalists among you (I should say “among us” considering

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3 Comments on Wholesale Price Growth Slows In Welcome News For Battered Bonds

Capex Boom, Like Everything Else, Is A Mag7 Story

January 13, 2025

First thing this week, in “The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance,” I cited capex and

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5 Comments on Capex Boom, Like Everything Else, Is A Mag7 Story

Why The VIX Space Is ‘Chronically Stressed’

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

There’s tension in the air across markets. Can you feel it? I’ve talked at some

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1 Comment on Why The VIX Space Is ‘Chronically Stressed’

Fed Gets Second Worrisome Inflation Expectations Update In Two Sessions

January 13, 2025

There was more evidence Monday that Americans’ medium-term inflation expectations are drifting higher (again) amid

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The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

The “US exceptionalism” theme’s ubiquitous to the point of being a cliché by now. Universal

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6 Comments on The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance

Stocks’ Bond Problem Grows As Traders Fret Over Fed

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

Stocks have a bond problem. Maybe you noticed. US equities — and stocks more generally,

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On Eve Of Trump’s Return, China’s Trade ‘Winnings’ Reach $1 Trillion

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

China’s a reverse Art Vandelay: “Just exports, no imports?” On Monday, Beijing released trade figures

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3 Comments on On Eve Of Trump’s Return, China’s Trade ‘Winnings’ Reach $1 Trillion

Gilt Trip

January 12, 2025January 12, 2025

Who’s on gilt watch? Everyone’s hands should be raised. The UK government bond market’s coming

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The Chilly Truth Behind China’s 5% Growth

January 12, 2025January 13, 2025

China’s set to release a raft of key data this week, including the full-year GDP

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1 Comment on The Chilly Truth Behind China’s 5% Growth

Fed Prays For Inflation Reprieve

January 12, 2025January 13, 2025

The Fed could really — really — use a break on the inflation front. Policymakers

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The Most Pressing Question(s) On Earth

January 11, 2025January 13, 2025

I’d say there’s no more pressing question than whether the largest US tech companies will

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High Bar, Two-Sided Risks: What To Expect From Earnings Season

January 11, 2025January 13, 2025

Reporting season starts next week, and analysts collectively have great expectations for corporate America. Consensus

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1 Comment on High Bar, Two-Sided Risks: What To Expect From Earnings Season

Cash Cult Keeps Gathering Adherents

January 10, 2025January 10, 2025

If you’re curious, money market funds kicked off the new year with a big inflow.

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Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

January 10, 2025January 12, 2025

I don’t know how many market participants had “bear flattener” on their jobs day bingo

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2 Comments on Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

In Ominous Development, US Inflation Expectations Soar To Highest Since 2008

January 10, 2025January 12, 2025

Uh oh. A closely-watched measure of medium- and longer-term inflation expectations printed 3.3% in the

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2 Comments on In Ominous Development, US Inflation Expectations Soar To Highest Since 2008

Bulls, Bears, Booms And Bonds

January 10, 2025January 11, 2025

As a reminder no one needs, last year marked just the fifth time in a

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US Jobs, Comin’ In Hot!

January 10, 2025January 11, 2025

Look out! US payrolls are comin’ in hot. The US economy added 256,000 jobs last

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UK Teeters On Brink Of Second Crisis In Two Years

January 9, 2025January 10, 2025

Liz Truss was in the news Thursday. Apparently, it’s illegal to suggest she crashed the

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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