On February 2, Ezra Klein released an audio essay called “Don’t Believe Him.”
It begins with a quote from a 2019 Steve Bannon interview (with PBS) in which the man once known as “Trump’s Rasputin” explained how to overwhelm the media in the service of advancing an agenda.
“All we have to do is flood the zone. Every day we hit them with three things,” Bannon said. “They’ll bite on one, and we’ll get all of our stuff done. Bang, bang, bang. [W]e’ve got to start with muzzle velocity.”
Klein’s contention, in a nutshell, is that Trump’s pursuing just that strategy in a bid not just to backfoot the opposition, but indeed to keep it from organizing its thoughts at all, in the process creating the illusion of command and control from chaos. As Klein put it,
What Bannon wanted — what the Trump administration wants — is to keep everything moving fast. Muzzle velocity, remember. If you’re always consumed by the next outrage, you can’t look closely at the last one. The impression of Trump’s power remains; the fact that he keeps stepping on rakes is missed. The projection of strength obscures the reality of weakness.
If you assume Trump has a strategy (not a safe assumption, I’d argue), that’s probably part of it, and over the last, let’s call it 72 hours, the administration certainly “flooded the zone.”
In the macro-market space alone, Trump went from slapping Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs to “pausing” the same tariffs (before they even went into effect) to threatening China with larger tariffs than the ones he’s supposed to implement on Tuesday to creating a US sovereign wealth fund that’ll allegedly take a run at forcibly acquiring China’s most valuable tech asset.
Markets couldn’t keep up. Monday was a rollercoaster befitting of Trump’s (allegedly strategic) capriciousness. Note that all the while, Elon Musk’s making his own headlines every couple of hours, and each one seems almost tailor-made to enrage.
In the around-the-clock activity, we’re supposed to see a proactively assertive administration hell-bent to impose its will on the US and indeed on the world, having been stymied during Trump’s first term by the American “deep state” and an entrenched global “establishment” determined to frustrate the great usurper.
As Klein wrote, “The flurry of activity is meant to suggest the existence of a plan.” The Trump team, he said, “wants it known that [t]hey will control events rather than be controlled by them.”
Klein’s not buying it. And he suggests you shouldn’t either. “The closer you look, the less true that seems,” he wrote, on the way to describing “the weakness of the strategy that Bannon proposed.”
In order to “keep the zone flooded, you have to keep creating new cycles of outrage or fear,” and in the process, you invariably overreach and “overwhelm yourself.”
Consider that food for thought on a day when Trump had the media and traders chasing around like the hapless squirrels they generally are.
Coin flip that these will be “back on” tomorrow
Yeah, and this is where Wall Street strategists start going back and forth: “I told you he meant it!” “I told you he didn’t mean it.” “Aha! See, he meant it!” “Look, they’re off again, he didn’t mean it.” “They’re back on, he meant it!”
Hapless squirrels? At least we are not rats being led by Pied Piper.
Oh wait, you did not rule that possibility out after all each day comes 2-3 new outrages to pick from.
There are several weaknesses to the tactic. I think it incorrect to call or hint these tactics are a strategy. The tactic will work until it does not, then it will fail spectacularly.
I do appreciate the color you have painted about the speed or velocity of outrage cycles. I have decided to be immune to outrage and keep pressing for kindess from our government towards all people. I also help push the narrative about 75% of all new power plants are solar. I also push my fuel costs are 1/3 those of gasoline now that I have an EV. No political bullshit is going to deter me from 67% discount on fuel. Zero recurring cost fuel if I go solar.
Yes, I read that yesterday and Klein nailed it. I took the bait on tariffs even after reading that!
The strategy is no different than the right-wing penchant for flooding social media with BS – a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on and they know it. Whether it’s meaningless executive orders or trying to get Federal workers to resign en masse, Trump and Musk can’t dismantle the system overnight. They will mess some things up badly, but that’s going to be part of the cost of our collective ignorance and stupidity.
You perfectly described his modus operandi. I’m a small (miniscule) business owner, and I can’t stand the distraction that he causes and extra attention devoted to trying to figure out something already impossible: where my markets are headed, etc. I can’t even imagine the level of disgust about it felt by Fortune 500 c-suites and Wall Street banks. Thank goodness we have H to help narrate these next few years!
H-Man, it is just a matter of time before this blows up and his base gets ugly about him. It is always the economy that either crowns a king or defrocks the imposter.
Great piece
If they keep announcing big things and then deferring or retracting those things after being promised actions that are illusory, minor, or were already planned, then they lose credibility and have to go bigger and bigger (50% tariffs! 100% tariffs! Import bans!) It becomes like going to rob a store with a suicide vest and coming out with a pack of gum.
If they actually do those big things, and more and more big things, then ordinary people – including MAGA and low-information voters as well as poor, sick, transgender, etc people – eventually get hurt, more and more.
It’s not like people aren’t going to notice when they get personally hurt. People will change their vote over the price of eggs, for Heaven’s sake. When businesses do raise prices or lay off employees due to tariffs, they are probably going to say “blame it on tariffs”. When school districts cut organs and lay off teachers due to the Dept of Education self-eliminating, they are clearly going to lay the blame. Same with when states drop people off ACA or Medicaid, close assistance programs, cancel infrastructure projects.
Almost everything Musk and similar hatchet-men are trying to do is aimed straight at some group of Americans who Will Notice. Except USAID. Sorry all you wretched, ill, impoverished brown and black children. You’re probably done for.
What do we, as investors, do in the meantime?
Trying to react nimbly to every new EO, tweet, rumour seems futile. Trying to get ahead of a broad set of coming things might make sense. Steadily reducing risk on “relief days” makes sense – to me. It doesn’t feel like this escalating chaos will end well.
I see your point about escalating rhetoric. However I am expecting a different outcome. One which the average supporters simply change the channel. They have heard enough.
There is a core of MAGA who support everything Trump/Musk do and are personally indifferent to the consequences.
I think the electorate is something like 30% hardcore red, 30% hardcore blue, 40% up for grabs of which 5%-ish truly do vote based on the price of eggs and suchlike.
As I read your comment, with which I agree, it occurred to me that donald of the little fingers has made two mistakes. The first is he is signing his huge beautiful signature to all these orders, his! not Biden’s. Can’t blame a guy who didn’t do it. Second, he is bypassing Congress on too many things. Members of Congress have local constituents. Cutting Congress out of the loop means they have no way to soften any of these blows, virtually all of which are meant to harm big groups of those constituents. He’s destroying his scapegoats by throwing so many under the bus. This will backfire because when Congress has nothing to brag about they take it in the neck sooner rather than later.
In your take we need to wait for the pain to hit before Congress gets a spine?
Cut “programs” not “organs”, sigh.
Break things. All the things. Break the markets too. Because when there’s blood in the streets, it’s time to buy. And all allies will all have dry powder ready to be put to work. When everything’s broken, declare emergency powers, cancel elections; power for life. He told us this many times… “Christians, get out and vote, just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.”
Forgot to add: Believe serial abusers, sociopaths, psychopaths when they tell you what they’re going to do. It may sound crazy if you’re not one, if you haven’t had to live with them all your life. But they tell truth about what they hope and plan to do, especially about what they’ll do to you. Wish I didn’t have to say such things.
You are absolutely correct. And it needs saying.
Why waste energy on speculation about intentions, when it’s easier to just take them at their word.
“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference”
Sure it’s hopium for the MAGA mass, but how many of the well-educated think he’d be elected the first time, let alone beat the rap and do it again? Is there a madness to his method or a method to his madness?
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Hype Man JD has confirmed muzzle velocity is the tempo. He keeps saying “all,gas, no brakes” and get used to this pace.