China: It’s not going well. Still. It’s still not going well for the world’s second-largest
Author: therealheisenberg
Rekindled Inflation And Fear Of The Great Unknown
At the risk of stating the obvious (and for the umpteenth time), one of the
Risk Of US Stock Drawdown Rises To One In Three
The risk of a meaningful stock pullback’s elevated. You can tell because… well, have you
FOMC Minutes Betray Early Concern Over Tariffs, Deportations
During last month’s press conference, Jerome Powell went out of his way to suggest upward
Time To Catch The Falling Bond Knife?
It might be time to buy the bonds. I don’t know. Not investment advice. Do
National Emergy
Regrettably, we’re all (every one of us) condemned to spend the next four years chasing
US Jobless Claims Just Collapsed
US jobless claims were — umm — very, very low in the week to January
Private Hiring Cools In America
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December, ADP said Wednesday, describing a “modest” pace of
How Leveraged ETFs Feed The Beast
I’ve spoken at some length recently about the extent to which modern market structure and
Are The Bonds Broken?
“Die gas pumper!” References to The Jerk are a staple in these pages, even as
Need A Job? There Are 8 Million Of Them Open In America
If you live in America and want a job, there are plenty available. Caveats apply.
Price Pressures Pick Up Sharply In Vast US Services Sector
The implacable US services sector outperformed in December. More importantly, price pressures accelerated sharply. That’s
Europe Not Out Of The Inflation Woods Just Yet
If you’re interested — and I know most of you are(n’t) — inflation in Europe
US Dominance Of Global Equity Market Reaches Existential Extremes
If your business is stocks, the US is all that matters. As 2025 dawned, the
Stock Bull Out Of Patience With Bond Bear, Wilson Warns
And the most important variable for stock performance in January is — drumroll — rates.
As Trudeau Steps Aside, Trump Floats US-Canada Merger
The West’s rolling crisis of governance claimed another victim early this week, when Justin Trudeau
‘Welcome To Trump 2.0’: Dollar Whipsaw Is Preview Of Volatility To Come
“Fake news.” That was Donald Trump’s response on Monday to a Washington Post sources story
Burning Bonds
I’ve said it over and over again in recent days and weeks, and I’ll say
Modern Market Minsky Moments
How long does a given market theme have to last before it becomes structural? Put
Gambling Cues
The white collar crowd will grudgingly go back to the office this week across the
By The Grace Of God
I gotta say: I’m a little disappointed in House Republicans. Mike Johnson’s still House Speaker,
Liquidity’s Drying Up For Non-US Corporates
I talk (we, all of us, talk) a lot these days about US “exceptionalism.” Once
Factory Stagflation! (Blah, Blah, Blah.)
US manufacturing activity improved in December, but contracted nevertheless, while underlying measures of input prices
South Korea Reels
I keep saying this, but it bears repeating: If you’re going to institute military rule,
Options Show No Fear Of New Stock Melt-Up
They’re hedging downside, but nobody’s especially concerned about missing the boat on a prospective new
Musk World
Not a single day goes by when Elon Musk isn’t in the news for something.
7%. Again.
US mortgage rates: They’re high. Or “high,” with scare quotes. It depends on how old
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