Behold: A ray of sunshine through the trade storm clouds.

The marquee gauge of US factory activity printed a 27-month high in the first of this week’s US macro data tsunami.

I wouldn’t get too excited, though. 50.9 — the headline ISM manufacturing print for January — hardly counted as robust. It was just better than consensus, which expected 50 (on the nose).

The final read on S&P Global’s US factory PMI for January, also released on Monday, was 51.2, up from the flash print and the first expansion-territory final reading in seven months.

As the figure shows, January’s surveys mark the first time both gauges have been above 50 during the same month since March. The ISM readout was just the second expansionary print since October of 2022.

“US manufacturing activity expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction,” ISM’s Tim Fiore said. “Demand clearly improved,” he went on, adding that although “staff reductions continued,” jobs were shed “at weaker rates.” (The employment gauge was actually above 50.)

Now for the (potential) bad news. The ISM prices gauge rose to 54.9. The uptick in January was the second straight month-to-month advance, and the index has now erased November’s decline.

As the figure shows, the factory input price metric now sits at its highest since May.

“A new year and a new President brought new optimism in the US manufacturing sector,” S&P Global’s Chris Williamson wrote Monday, before sounding a word or two of caution.

“A rise in the rate of increase of both input costs and selling prices could become a concern,” he said. “Especially as the combination of higher price pressures alongside accelerating economic growth and rising employment is not typically conducive to cutting interest rates.”