It’s a good thing Tesla’s not a car company.
If it was, the multiple on the shares would be pretty damn hard to justify by way of sales growth, which clocked in at a not-at-all impressive 2% for Q4 in results released after the bell on Wall Street Wednesday. Automotive revenue fell 8% YoY, Tesla said.
Analysts expected $27.3 billion from Tesla’s top-line readout. They got just $25.7 billion instead.
As the figure reminds you, Tesla’s having a helluva hard time moving the needle on the two lines that should (note the emphasis) matter most for an ostensible growth company pursuing a veritable grab bag of futuristic projects including a friendly Stormtrooper called “Optimus.”
Recall that Q4 deliveries, reported earlier this month, were 495,570, nowhere near the 512,277 analysts collectively expected. That underwhelming result meant Tesla delivered fewer vehicles in 2024 than it did in 2023, the first annual sales drop ever for the company.
But, as I wrote in the linked article (and on any number of other occasions), Tesla’s not a car company. I mean, it is, but it’s a lot more than that. It’s Elon Musk with intraday liquidity. When Tesla’s down, buying the dip is to get Musk at a discount, and generally speaking, he’ll figure out a way to reward you for that bet.
Anyone who bought Tesla at the desperate lows early last year was rewarded handsomely, first by Musk’s uncanny ability to revive the market’s faith in Tesla’s capacity to deliver on strategic initiatives despite little if any evidence to back up his claims, and then, later, by a figurative and literal investment in Donald Trump’s reelection bid.
Less than a year on from what some described as an existential crisis at Tesla (where Musk’s myopic obsession with Robotaxi allegedly hurt morale), Elon has his own quasi-government agency and an official White House email address. He’s America’s first real oligarch (as distinct from a plutocrat, of which America’s had plenty).
Tesla now trades almost exclusively on the perception that regardless of what’s happening in the here and now, the future’s bright because Musk serves as a kind of shadow POTUS.
As the figure shows, Musk was worth $421 billion on paper as of Wednesday afternoon, and that was after “losing” more than $60 billion from his personal peak ($487 billion in early December.)
In the slide deck, Tesla said that thanks to “advancements in vehicle autonomy and the introduction of new products,” the car business — you know, the business Tesla’s supposed to be in — should “return to growth” this year. The company reiterated (in characteristically nebulous terms), that more affordable products “remain on track for [the] start of production in the first half of 2025.”
On the call, Musk told analysts he’s “spend[ing] a lot of time with the Tesla AI team and the Tesla Optimus team.” It’s amazing he can squeeze that into his schedule these days. So many government employees to fire, so little time.
In the past three-months, Tesla has emailed me every offer in the sales book, even placing more intrusive referral banner ads in the app. Meanwhile, the “Make this car less embarrassing again” magnet remains on the back of my wife’s Model Y, which is the last Tesla/Musk product we’ll ever knowingly buy/order.
Tesla isn’t a car company, it’s a neo-Nazi financing company.
You are right on. Unfortunately for the my next car is coming from China – made by a car company.
“Tell Michael it was only business, I always liked him.”
Does all of this political activity mean that Elon’s plan to colonize Mars–before global warming destroys our planet–is going to be postponed indefinitely now? I live in SoCal, and this global warming trend is looking far worse than Tesla’s current bottom line. Perhaps he’s just bored with making cars and rockets now.
The three things I have always admired about Elon are his vision, his genius, and his ambition. (Is it going too far to say that he made the electric car industry viable almost entirely on his own initiative?) His ambition now seems to be leading him in too many directions at once, polymathy notwithstanding. Did he really throw all of that financial support behind Trump’s campaign just to be the hype man in his political entourage, to be co-head of DOGE, or perhaps to become America’s first minister of propaganda?
Head of NASA seems too obvious. As head of the Department of Transportation he could try to plan and implement a new highway and road infrastructure equipped with sensors to assist with autonomous driving vehicles. (Lord knows this country needs new roads and bridges, and just think of the jobs that would create.) Or he could work on an incentive program to develop alternative fuel trucking and rail transportation as quickly as possible. As head of the Department of Energy he could work on rebuilding our energy infrastructure to better store and distribute solar and wind power nation-wide as cheaply and efficiently as possible. Wouldn’t any of these ideas make much more linear sense? (Perhaps that is my problem: too much linear thinking.) I mean, it’s not like he is personally ever going to run out of money.
I know, I know: but Trump is Mr. drill, baby, drill! Our future is going to require all of the energy we can possibly muster to run everything we now have, power AI, and still have some left over to mine for Bitcoin. Elon has stated that we should not vilify fossil fuel and gas in the medium-term, as they are necessary. But his goal (dare I say passion) was always to replace them with more sustainable alternatives to stave-off climate change. Perhaps this is the best he can do as he cannot actually run a department of government and his other interests simultaneously. Then I would say that his current situation only slightly better, and much more confusing to both his current and potential investors. (I actually have friends that have divested their shares of Tesla because they think Elon has either: a.) changed sides, b.) lost his mind, or c.) all of the above.)
Has he swapped his original goal for something else? Has he now planted himself as a mole inside of the Trump administration to begin effecting change from within? Is he playing some sort 3D chess with all of us? His actions of the past several months have been far more bewildering than they are reassuring. Head of Tesla, head of SpaceX, head of Twitter (currently known as X), head of DOGE. He’s starting to sound like a comic book superhero, except he’s not (although Dr. Buckaroo Bonzai does come to mind). Which is he: Leonardo da Vinci or Howard Hughes? (Perhaps he thinks he is Leonardo DiCaprio, who played Howard Hughes so well in “The Aviator.”)
I can’t bring myself to invest my hard earned money in a “car company” where the owner is no longer pouring over every detail of making the very best cars he possibly can. Just call me old fashioned. Focusing on affordable solar systems and Powerwall’s is equally acceptable, as I have nothing against a well-run conglomerate. Woking with the government is also understandable, especially if it opens doors for your business. I just think his attention is too divided now. Hopefully we will see some sort of reverse metamorphosis soon. I will admit that you are probably right however: the stock will continue to make tons of money.
“Tom, can you get me off the hook, for old times sake?” “Can’t do it Sally.” I just can’t do it.
The goal is world domination.
SELL !