We talk a lot about the “wealth effect” as it relates to the interplay between
Author: therealheisenberg
AI Paradigm Shift? McElligott Weighs In On DeepSeek Shock
“I’m not gonna try to play semi- / AI- expert here,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said
Will DeepSeek Deep-Six The Mag7?
“More investment does not necessarily lead to more innovation.” The quote’s from quant fund manager
It’s (Still) The Liquidity, Stupid
What’s the difference between explaining something and explaining something away? Not much, in my experience.
What To Expect From The January FOMC Meeting
A pause. I hate to spoil the suspense, and I’m legendary for burying the lede,
US Flaunts Economic Brawn As World Struggles
This’ll be a fairly busy week for traders. In addition to the January FOMC meeting
Stock Bubble Is ‘Self-Fulfilling Catalyst’ For American Exceptionalism
Here’s a chicken-egg quandary for you: Which came first, US macro exceptionalism or US equity
How America’s Housing Crisis Fueled A Boom In Stocks And Crypto
I wrote earlier Friday about US housing. Again. Again squared. Then cubed. The vexing circumstances
In US Housing: The Worst Year Since 1995
Now we’re gettin’ somewhere! Maybe lose the exclamation point, though. Existing home sales in the
Oops! US Services Sector Activity Cools Dramatically
“Output growth slows in January and price pressures rise,” S&P Global said Friday, summarizing what
Japan Beats Deflation. Now What About China?
There’s good news for China: It is possible to exit deflation. It just takes a
Justifying A Bubble
I wrote twice already this week about corporate balance sheets and the accrued blessings of
Donald Trump Has Some Demands
Donald Trump wants lower interest rates, he wants them now and he’s not taking “no”
As Stimulus Rally Slips Away, China Resorts To State-Buying
If you’re new to these pages, you might come away suspecting I’m a China-phobe. I
Overblown Claims
Initial US jobless claims rose a second week, handily topping estimates in the process, according
Spot-Up, Vol-Up And The VIX Squeeze Risk That Just Won’t Die
There’s a “monster vibe shift” afoot across thematic macro trades, where last week’s round of
A ‘Monster Vibe Shift’
Don’t look now, but US equities are within shouting distance of record highs, on track
My Way Or The Hard Way
In 2016, when he was still inclined to interviews with traditional media outlets, Donald Trump
US Home Purchases Fall Through At Record Rate On Cost Burden
Hopelessly-stretched would-be US homeowners caught a small break over the last week, as financing costs
Madman Theory: Redux
A couple of days ago (and on any number of other occasions), I suggested equities
This Time Was Different In At Least One ‘Shocking’ Respect
Earlier this week, in “As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared,” I took
Where To For Stocks? Ask Bonds
What was the biggest takeaway from last week’s post-US CPI price action? Maybe that’s an
Trump’s Term Premium Problem
2025’s not 2017. The distinction matters for the Trump administration’s domestic policy agenda, and specifically
A Mandate For Cruelty
Donald Trump came into office with a mandate to be cruel towards immigrants, and he
Is Kneecapping China A Good Idea?
At this point, I should probably apologize to Beijing for beating the dead horse that
Trump Inherits Goldilocks US Economy In ‘Sweet Spot’
“There’s a Goldilocks flavor to it.” So said Goldman’s Jan Hatzius in a note published
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