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In US Housing: The Worst Year Since 1995
Now we're gettin' somewhere! Maybe lose the exclamation point, though.
Existing home sales in the U
Trump will fix it!
But as you highlight here and some of your prescient readers have also argued, people seem to be getting accustomed or inured to higher interest rates.
As my mother pointed out to me when I bought my first home, once you own a house, it becomes your hobby, whether you want it to or not.
Especially one built in 1900. I never knew how expensive copper work on a large roof could be.
Invoking the discussion of copper versus plastic plumbing in Moonstruck….
I am thinking we are at the cusp of a materials revolution. I know that has been stated before, but I think the elements are coming together.
Our understanding of physical chemistry allows us to extract formerly energy intensive minerals in low energy ways. This coupled with cheapening energy will allow mass production of water, steel, and cement at much reduced costs. I hope we also crack the copper nut.
We are seeing much better understanding of 3-D printing and injection molding. Both of these are required to cheaply produce complex parts in low cost ways. We can do metals and other materials now with both technologies.
We can now make everything on the gulf coast with electricity, water and carbon dioxide. Organic chemicals at low cost will eliminate need but not economic incentive to drill. We have had only one possibility in the past and that is to drill.
These fundamental manufacturing technologies will transform our society and create an economic boom. So why are we at each others throats trying to do the bidding of the latest robber barrons who wants to own everything and dictate everything from reefer filled rooms?
3D printing keeps chugging along, becoming more and more useful in many realms, including medical devices.
It’s easy to forget that it once was breathlessly touted by Wall Street as being a world-changing technology which would eliminate the need for large-scale factories by localizing the production of all types of goods. For amusement value, put up a chart of SSYS and DDD starting in September 2022.
The rally and subsequent round trip in those shares looks familiar doesn’t it? You could superimpose it on top of later day charts of weed, blockchain, metaverse mRNA and, dare I say it, AI stocks. All of which were declared to be transformative new technologies.
That said, 3D printing has been chugging along, eventually fulfilling some of the promises Wall Street told us to expect before investor ADHD set in and we all moved along to the next theme.
So our Engineer may be on to something. Hell, the PVC piping I referred to in my initial post was a great example of that. Copper prices became prohibitive and PVC plumbing rode to the rescue. Just as modern can liners reduced or eliminiated the need for tin in tin cans.Or the invention of synthetic rubber for thar matter. Eventually high prices draw in alternatives.
This ages-old process is already starting in AI GPUs as well.
I should review more carefully before hitting the send button. The starting date on the SSYS and DDD charts should be September 2011. 2011, not 11 years later.
Dear Leader – we do need an edit function to help ancient and impatient commentors! (Or perhaps I need a curvaceous young assistant to proof read my posts before sending them…)
Yes, I think the AI GPU’s will be a relic of the past soon. Quantum and/or light computers will be able to hum where a server farms groan to rid themselves of heat. By the time these nuts get nuclear power plants up and running, there will be real competition.
It was not an accident that I paired metal injection molding with 3D printing. Cycle times for 3D printing are not competition with high rate production techniques like high volume injection molding. 3D printing competes with human involvement, whether that is machining, hand assembly, distribution or low volume injection molding.
Hydrometallurgy has come a long way in the past few years with direct extraction of lithium, hydro metallurgically derived cement, or iron extraction. I expect chemists will figure out how to extract base metals from the ocean, thereby recycling much of what has been lost over millenium. Natural ocean processes in the form of ocean bottom nodules show the potential for a wide variety valuable minerals from ocean water.
Is it possible that the current generation is less concerned about housing because they are living with their parents?
I think in a world that will be get ever more remote in terms of work, needing to stay in one place for an extended part of one’s life is a bit anachronistic. An exception would be to have children, but more young people are having them at a later age or not at all.