“It’s not entirely clear when the “enough is enough” moment will come in terms of highlighting charts that illustrate the epochal (and increasingly dangerous) shift to passive versus active management, but I don’t think we’re there yet.”
Author: therealheisenberg
You Only Need One Chart
Do you want a “pure” look at how disconnected equities have become from the economic realities of the reflation narrative?
Photo Of The Year? Trump With Top Strategists Nugent, Rock, Palin
First of all this is real. That’s the number one thing you need to understand and appreciate…
Goldman Presents A Perfect Storm For S&P 500 Valuations
“Since 1985, an increase in the rate of inflation has led to contracting P/E multiples. S&P 500 forward P/E averages around 17x when core CPI is between the 2%-3% range but averages below 10x when core CPI rises above 5%.”
Guest Post: The Real Message From The VanEck GDXJ Mess
“There is precious little room for everyone in the gold boat. This is made all too clear with the problems we quickly experienced from a little interest in GDXJ. Can you imagine what will happen if the tide truly turns?”
Kim Sees Trump’s “Armada,” Raises Him One “Super-Mighty,” “Ashes To Ashes” Nuclear Strike
“In the case of our super-mighty preemptive strike being launched, it will completely and immediately wipe out not only U.S. imperialists’ invasion forces in South Korea and its surrounding areas but the U.S. mainland and reduce them to ashes.”
French Fries Protip: Don’t Worry About The Second Round, Worry About The First
“Melenchon now has a genuine chance of reaching the second round and, in purely markets terms, he would be as bad, if not worse, for French and European assets. Crucially, polls suggest that if Emmanuel Macron stumbles, the leftist would beat both Le Pen and Francois Fillon in a second-round runoff.”
This Hasn’t Happened In A Quarter Century: Chinese Equity Market Edition
Time was, you couldn’t trust the SHCOMP (let alone the Shenzhen) not to open limit-down or,
“OPEC Has A Deal!” Buy Euros! Wait, There’s A French Election? Welcome To Thursday.
Let’s start with oil real quick, because there are some notable headlines on Thursday morning.
Passion Of The Trader: Jesus, We’re Getting “Crucified” Out Here
“All of which means traders have been getting crucified when trying to express long-term views.”
Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Worth Mentioning Or Not So Much? Bond Bears Get A “Rude Awakening”
“Not long ago we were often asked why our 2.5% end-March 2017 forecast for 10-year US Treasury yields was so low. Now, the most recurrent questions are how much further can bond yields fall, and what will it take to bring them back to the top of the Q1 range by end-June.”
Finally! A Visual Guide To The French Elections That Actually Makes Sense
Are you confused by the French elections? Well, we all are to varying degrees. Indeed
One Flow Chart Shows How “Simple” ETF Trading Really Is
[Warning: sarcasm ahead]
Nikki Haley Blasts Syria’s Assad In CNN Op-Ed: “Evil Is A Fact Of Life”
“Imagine you are the parent of a boy — a teenager. Policemen come to your home in the middle of the night and take your boy away. He is held without explanation for weeks. And when he finally comes home, your boy has all the marks of having been tortured.”
“Keep ‘Em Guessing” And Avoid A Crisis
“While the FOMC shouldn’t wrong-foot the financial markets just for the sake of it, by the same token, keeping them guessing a bit more could raise market risk premia — and perhaps reduce the chance of another crisis.”
Guest Post: “We’re All Yen Traders Now”
“I warned you that I wouldn’t have any answers in today’s post, but I implore you to stick the Yen up your screen and watch it like a hawk – it’s likely that any serious market dislocation will first show up in the movement of the Yen.”
Chart Of The Day: “It’s Now Higher Than Brexit And Lehman”
“It is now higher than during Brexit, the Euro-area crisis and GFC levels which means demand for equity hedges has increased materially relative to supply among investors.”
Here Are The 5 Most Important Questions In US Politics
Are you confused about the political outlook in Washington? Yeah? Well, that’s ok because believe
Dear North Korea: Don’t Make Mike Pence Pull Out His “Sword”
“The United States of America will always seek peace but under President Trump, the shield stands guard and the sword stands ready.”
Gesundheit! The VIX Is Sneezing, Will Emerging Markets “Catch Cold?”
“What is clearer is that, as investors continue to wait for the global economy to ‘show me the activity’, they have become increasingly nervous about the prospect of a large, sharp S&P drawdown.”
A “Soggy” Bottom Morning
“Soggy US housing starts and soggy industrial production data just reinforced the soggy message from last week’s figures, and with it the growing sense that the inflation peak is earlier and lower than many feared.”
“Petty” (And Pesky) Narratives
One day after warning that “frazzled” would be “the word of the month” for traders,
Key Calls (Wednesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Is It Just Me, Or Was That A Nightmare?
You know, I don’t do a lot of “that’s a wrap” or “the day that
White Nationalist, Grandfather Demand Trump Pay Damages For Brainwashing Them
“I acted pursuant to the directives and requests of Donald J. Trump and Donald J. Trump for President [so] any liability must be shifted to one or both of them.”
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