This should go without saying, but US equities still aren’t cheap. I don’t know why
Author: therealheisenberg
When All Other Plunge Protection Fails…
Listen, if Scott Bessent can’t find anyone to buy America’s debt, he can just cajole
‘Raising Hell’
The first of this week’s top-tier US macro data was underwhelming, at best. No one
Move Fast And Break The Bonds
New week, same concerns. The bear steepener was back in the Treasury curve, the dollar
Labor Market Linchpin
It’s the first week of the month and you know what that means: A full data
Trading The Tariff Range
In addition to top-tier US macro data, traders will be compelled to grapple in the
Imagined Pasts
Legend has it Whenever I venture out into the hollow, cold paradox of a constantly-connected
Capital Wars Are Here
Foreign investors didn’t need another reason to be skeptical of US assets. Militant mercantilism, policy
Game Of Chicken (The Trump Collar Explained)
Legendary fast food connoisseur Donald Trump doesn’t like the “TACO”s. A fixture of Trump’s tariff
Americans Remain Deeply Depressed Despite Tariff Pause
Good news. Or maybe I should say news that’s less bad. The final word on
TACO Stall
The world’s two largest economies might’ve made “great progress,” as Donald Trump put it, towards
Four Years Later, Fed Finds Price Stability
As expected, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was benign in data released on Friday.
Do Foreign Investors Really Have ‘Too Much’ US Exposure?
There’s still no consensus on whether and to what extent Donald Trump’s policies — from
At The President’s Invitation
“Donnie, I got sent for.” On Thursday, the Fed casually announced that Jerome Powell was
Pending Home Sales Collapse Again In Hopeless US Housing
It was a false dawn. Another one. Following a blockbuster gain to kick off the
Court Says Felon Acted Illegally
On Thursday morning in the US, Best Buy cut its sales and profit outlook for
Brake Slam
Bad news. Or maybe it’s good news to the extent slower growth relieves some of
Terms And Conditions
I’ve spent a ton of time since “Liberation Day” talking about the term premium, and
Huang Praises The Revolution As Nvidia Results Clouded By China Curbs
Nvidia — maybe you’ve heard of it — beat on the top-line in results released
17 Times The Uncertainty
The word “uncertainty” came up 17 times in the May FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday
Is US Tech Still Magnificent?
As Nvidia readied its quarterly results, analysts and strategists were torn on whether investors should
Treasury Selloff Is Insult To Injury For US Housing Crisis
Remember when Scott Bessent was going to reduce financing costs for everyday, middle-income Americans like
Are Developed Markets The New Banana Republics?
Implicit in pervasive hand-wringing over the recent sharp rise in long-end bond yields across advanced
US Home Price Growth Slows, Luxury Market Hit By Stock Crash
The annual pace of home price growth as measured by the marquee gauge of US
Trump Engineers Epic Confidence Reversal With China Tariff Pause
While previewing this week’s slate of US macro releases, I suggested consumer confidence was likely
In Japan, Myth Maintenance
Markets stop panicking when policymakers start. I don’t know if the news out of Japan
For $1.8 Trillion In Student Loans, It’s Payback Time
Student loans are in the news and I feel like I should say something about
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