Goldilocks! You gotta love it. Or love her, I guess. This week’s marquee US macro
Author: therealheisenberg
Russian Vodka, Poisoned By Chernobyl!
I remember precisely where I was and approximately what I was doing on November 24,
Just Buy New, It’s Cheaper…
The bad news is, the pace of contract closings for “used” homes in America was
Huge GDP Revisions Make Mockery Of Fed Rate Cuts
Revised data can be trusted as long as it’s favorable, right? Asking for market participants,
Job Losses? Where?
US jobless claims. Occasionally, they spike. When they do, everybody “flips out, man.” (Shades of
Kindling Present: No Matches Allowed
Trivia time: How many daily SPX moves of +/- 1% have we seen since the
‘The Needle Was Threaded’
Say it with me: Financial conditions are easy. Now say it again. And again. Because
Alibaba’s 50% Rally Evokes Dangerous Phase Of Tech Hype Cycles
I’ll say it. I don’t care: The AI hype machine’s starting to look a lot
New Home Sales Surge Amid Builder Incentives, But Average Price Soars
Put pervasive builder incentives and a meaningful decline in mortgage rates together in a cauldron
US Housing Sees ‘Strongest Buyer’s Market On Record.’ With A Caveat…
This time last year, home financing costs in the US bottomed around 6.15%. Over the
Why ‘You Cannot Take Your Hedges Off Now’
Grinding, low-vol melt-ups are painful when you’re hedged for downside. And the summer just ended
Some See Dot-Com Ghost In OpenAI-Nvidia Deal
Every week, there’s another AI capex boom story. Usually two or three. In the eyes
Gold Rush 2025
Gold. It’s had a helluva run. Croesus was really onto something. Typically, you have to
US Economy Has Best Quarter Of 2025, PMIs Suggest
Q3 was “the best quarter so far this year for US businesses.” That’s according to
OECD Lifts Growth Outlook But Warns ‘Downside Risks Loom Large’
The OECD on Tuesday raised nearly all its forecasts for the global economy to reflect
Show Of Hands: Who Wants To Bail Out Javier Milei?
Argentina’s in the news. So let me say a bit about Argentina. I’ll try to
The Gin Pen
Antecedent: A vignette 12 years ago next month, I saw Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar at
Gas On The Fire: Models Say The Darndest Things
The standard line at the Fed, and certainly within the Trump administration, says monetary policy
Template: [Someone Has To Be Wrong]
Has anyone done a stocks versus bonds, “someone has to be wrong” chart lately? If
Traders Eye Core Inflation As Fed Drama Rolls On
The US data docket’s fairly busy this week, but it won’t feel like it. There’s
Weekly: Hope, An Epilogue
[Editor’s note: If you haven’t read “Hope: A Novelette,” you should. This article is, as
The Stock Rally, Inflation And The Midterms
Capitalism, and especially American-style capitalism post-1980, is an easy enough game to play. That’s certainly
Sky’s The Limit, Apparently
How many records is this by now? Equity records, I mean. I’ve lost count. September
Perfect Phone Call
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping took a break from the exhausting and sometimes bothersome business
Leave The Bubble Alone, Sir
Leave well enough alone. Wise words. If a bit hackneyed. I know a lot of
The Highest Of High Stakes
I’m virtually certain — which is something different from entirely certain, and I’ll be glad
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