The US economy added more jobs than expected last month, and you can thank state
Author: therealheisenberg
Decent PMI Headlines Belie Underlying Stagflation
The last of this week’s top-tier US macro releases sent mixed messages about the largest
Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World
I suppose this goes without saying, but there’s still a lot of angst out there
Private Hiring Slams Into Reverse As ADP Headline Goes Negative
Private sector employers in the US — that’d be the businesses on whose shoulders job
2025 Is Worst Year For Job Cuts Since Pandemic
There was good news and bad news from Wednesday’s monthly update on job cut announcements
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since ‘Liberation Day’ Can’t Break Housing Gridlock
Quick, refi! Mortgage rates in the US slipped below 6.80% on the MBA’s gauge in
Trump Tax Bill Hands Richest 0.1% A $120,000 Annual Raise
You gotta hand it to Republicans: Four decades on from the Reagan Revolution, they’ve distilled
Foreigners Are Still Saying ‘No Thank You’ To US Stocks, Bonds
In “US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?” I recapped H1 equity fund flows on the
Blame Game
Jerome Powell on Tuesday blamed Donald Trump for the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in
Restaurant, Hotel Job Openings Soar Second-Most Ever
Don’t look now, but job openings across the US economy just jumped the most since
Another Month, Another Discouraging Read On American Manufacturing
US manufacturing activity contracted again last month amid subdued hiring and pervasive upward pressure on
A Quarter To Remember
Here’s hoping you bought the dip. US equities on Monday closed out Q2 with a
By Now, Trump’s Probably Right About Rates
In my macro preview for this week, I suggested Jerome Powell might be facing a
Scott’s Dilemma
“Well, wha– why would we do that?” Scott Bessent wondered on Monday, when Donald Trump’s
DJT Doesn’t Like DSTs
Late last week, Donald Trump did his best to spoil the party on Wall Street
BIS Not On The Trump Train
“Blah, blah, blah.” That’s what Donald Trump heard when he read the latest annual report
No Kings Week
It’s another holiday week in the US, where Americans will celebrate that fateful day when
US Equity Flows: Robust Or Sputtering?
Six months in, 2025’s been — how should I put this? — interesting, to employ
Behold: The Fastest Bear Market Recovery Ever
Fast and furious. That’s Donald Trump in his second term. Whether you attribute the breakneck
Bubble Watch
We’re on the cusp of a new bubble. Maybe. With US equities back at records,
Goldilocks Doesn’t Live Here
This week’s marquee US macro release missed on pretty much every account. On Friday, the
A ‘Pennsylvania Plan’ To Cope With America’s ‘Explosive Debt’
There’s still nothing like a consensus on whether Donald Trump, through word and deed, is
Trump’s ‘Revenge Tax’ Is Dead
One of Donald Trump’s worst-ever ideas (and that’s really saying something) is dead. On Thursday
Contract Signings Limp Higher In Beset US Housing
“Good news” is probably too strong, but under the onerous circumstances, it’s fair to describe
Brake Slam
Guess what? The spending impulse in America was negligible during the first three months of
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