In December of 2023, I published a piece called “Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union.” Technically, it
Author: therealheisenberg
Why The Stock Bubble Might Not Pop. Yet.
Why do cycles die? There are a lot of possible (plausible) answers, but one of
Wall Street Versus Main Street: It’s Complicated
True or false: The stock market = the economy. True or false: Wall Street =
Trump Will Bring Peace To Mideast By Sunday. With Violence If Necessary
Donald Trump’s going to bring peace to the Middle East even if he has to
Damn You, Stagflation!
It’s a miss. Wait, I have to snap everyone out of their equity melt-up stupor,
How The Stock Melt-Up Dies. Or Not.
I suppose it’s just as well we’re not getting a US jobs report on Friday.
The Leader We Deserve
Remember when Donald Trump didn’t have anything to do with Project 2025, let alone any
Gang Aft Agley
Hiring. US private sector employers aren’t. Or at least not according to this week’s ADP
‘By Far The Largest On Record’ (Bubble Tickets)
They’re grabbing for upside. Or buying lottery tickets. Or they’re just keen to ride a
US Jobless Rate Biased Higher In September, New Fed Model Shows
The unemployment rate in the US probably stuck at 4.3% last month, but it “wants”
Lights Out
Late Tuesday evening, with the US government shutdown clock ticking down under four hours, Donald
SCOTUS Draws A Line At The Fed. For Now.
What’s that I perceive, glimmering faintly in the smoldering ashes of a republic we couldn’t
‘Tariffs Are Killing Us’: Trade Taxes Prolong US Factory Recession
Could’ve been worse. But it was still pretty bad. That’s my take on Wednesday’s ISM
Ruh-Roh! Hammer Falls On US Labor Market
Ruh-roh! The US private sector lost 32,000 jobs on net in September, according to the
Can De-Globalization Be Good For Corporate Profits?
Maybe globalization wasn’t such a great idea after all. That’s been the rallying cry for
Is The S&P ‘The New Risk-Free Rate’?
This time’s different. (Narrator: It’s not.) A couple of days ago, someone sent me a
Now Hiring?
The good news is, job openings across the world’s largest economy stabilized after falling for
Gilded Age? Sure. ‘Golden Age’? Nah.
American households’ view on Donald Trump’s economy deteriorated “sharply” in September, Tuesday’s update on consumer
US Homeowners Suffer Third Straight Inflation-Adjusted Loss
If you’re a struggling renter locked out of the American dream, you can take some
Beware The Froth
Are you sharp-eyed when it comes to signs of market froth? Do you wake up
Recovery Pending…
“How about those rates, huh?!” Wrote scores of desperate buyer’s agents in emoji-riddled emails blasted
This Is Almost Surely A Bubble…
The f-cked up thing about asset bubbles is that although it’s easy enough to detect
Doomscroll
A day off I found out Osama bin Laden was dead the same way
It’s Jobs Week In America. Shutdown Depending.
It’s supposed to be jobs week in America, but like everything else in the country
Weekly: Don’t Be A Hero
Before anyone accuses me of catastrophizing the situation, consider how awkwardly politicized the most routine
Dollar Rebound Seen As Nascent Risk To Asset Bubbles
Do we really need those Fed cuts after all? That was the question for traders
‘Extreme 25s’ For The New ‘Roarin’ 20s’
Earlier this month, Vanguard sent me a helpful email reminder: “We noticed you’re holding cash
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