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Author: therealheisenberg

Europe’s Doing Ok, All Things Considered

October 30, 2025October 31, 2025

ECB meetings are non-events these days and will be for the foreseeable future. Long story

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Alphabet Has ‘Terrific’ Quarter. Spending Eyed At Meta, Microsoft

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

“Terrific.” That’s one word to describe the quarter Alphabet just had. Or at least that’s

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2 Comments on Alphabet Has ‘Terrific’ Quarter. Spending Eyed At Meta, Microsoft

‘Far From A Foregone Conclusion’

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

There was one overarching takeaway from Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday afternoon in the

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1 Comment on ‘Far From A Foregone Conclusion’

Schmid V. Miran

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

The Fed cut rates by 25bps on Wednesday, as widely expected. Stephen Miran, Trump’s man

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Crowning Achievement

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

Memoranda of understanding. What are they, exactly? They’re “non-binding agreements that outline the shared intentions

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8 Comments on Crowning Achievement

Lower Mortgage Rates Fail To Revive Moribund US Housing

October 29, 2025October 30, 2025

Flat. That was contract activity in the US housing market last month. Wednesday’s sole, lonely

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5 Comments on Lower Mortgage Rates Fail To Revive Moribund US Housing

It’s Not A Bubble, Nvidia Insists

October 28, 2025October 29, 2025

Monday it was Qualcomm. Tuesday it was Nokia. Every day, something else soars 20% or

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7 Comments on It’s Not A Bubble, Nvidia Insists

F.O.R.T.

October 28, 2025October 29, 2025

The equity rally. You missed it. Ok, maybe you didn’t, but some people might’ve. And

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4 Comments on F.O.R.T.

Consumer Confidence Falls As American ‘Vibecession’ Unrelenting

October 28, 2025October 29, 2025

Consumer confidence in the US declined a third month in October as households continued to

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1 Comment on Consumer Confidence Falls As American ‘Vibecession’ Unrelenting

America’s Inflation-Adjusted Housing Wealth Shrinks Again

October 28, 2025October 28, 2025

Don’t look now, but America’s housing wealth declined a third straight month in inflation-adjusted terms.

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1 Comment on America’s Inflation-Adjusted Housing Wealth Shrinks Again

‘Give Him My Putter. He’ll Love It.’

October 28, 2025October 29, 2025

If I hear the term “golden age” one more time I fear I might lose

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3 Comments on ‘Give Him My Putter. He’ll Love It.’

Remember: Bears Are Never Held Accountable

October 27, 2025October 28, 2025

I keep coming back to the notion that people — as opposed to machines, and

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10 Comments on Remember: Bears Are Never Held Accountable

Season’s Greetings

October 27, 2025October 29, 2025

I don’t love historical analogues in the market context. In a similar vein, I’m instinctually

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1 Comment on Season’s Greetings

Squeeeeeeeze

October 27, 2025October 28, 2025

Earlier this month, I endeavored to explain why equities were trading short. It wasn’t complicated

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2 Comments on Squeeeeeeeze

It Worked.

October 27, 2025October 28, 2025

Congratulations to Javier Milei and, just as importantly from some vantage points, Scott Bessent: Argentines

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7 Comments on It Worked.

What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

October 26, 2025October 27, 2025

A rate cut. Spoiler alert. That’s the short version. And there really isn’t a “long”

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Free-Wheeling And Dealing

October 26, 2025October 27, 2025

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have a deal. Or at least the contours of one.

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5 Comments on Free-Wheeling And Dealing

Weekly: Bells At The Top?

October 25, 2025October 27, 2025

The equity rally off the “Liberation Day” panic lows sure is exhibiting a lot of

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3 Comments on Weekly: Bells At The Top?

Gold.

October 24, 2025

F-ck gold. It’s worthless. Who’s mad already?! I’m kidding, I’m kidding. Mostly. I just can’t

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5 Comments on Gold.

Gipper Grievances

October 24, 2025October 27, 2025

I suppose — indeed I hope, because if not it means a lot of you are

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9 Comments on Gipper Grievances

Bad Vibes

October 24, 2025October 26, 2025

With the usual caveat that it’s what consumers do that counts, not necessarily what they

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1 Comment on Bad Vibes

Fed Gets Rate-Cut Green Light From BLS

October 24, 2025October 26, 2025

“Welcome back to the office. President Trump’s expecting good news.” Furloughed US government statisticians temporarily

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9 Comments on Fed Gets Rate-Cut Green Light From BLS

US Economy Ok For Now, But Maybe Not For Long

October 24, 2025October 25, 2025

Guess what? Activity across the US economy picked up in early October when businesses and,

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All Skewed Up

October 23, 2025October 24, 2025

You don’t need to hedge what you don’t own. And vice versa. That simple, axiomatic

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12 Comments on All Skewed Up

For Many US Home Hopefuls, ‘Affordable’ Remains A Distant Prospect

October 23, 2025October 24, 2025

It says a lot, none of it especially encouraging, about the resale market for US

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4 Comments on For Many US Home Hopefuls, ‘Affordable’ Remains A Distant Prospect

Vladimir, It’s Don. I Sanctioned Your Oil. Call Me Back.

October 23, 2025October 24, 2025

Don’t worry about it, it’s just a negotiating tactic. And the world’s anyway awash in

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5 Comments on Vladimir, It’s Don. I Sanctioned Your Oil. Call Me Back.

‘If This Was A Normal Cycle’

October 22, 2025October 22, 2025

In “This Time Was Different” I talked at some length about the uniqueness of the

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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