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Author: therealheisenberg

The ‘Best Short’

November 14, 2025November 16, 2025

There’s a new big short. Or “best short.” Somebody call Michael Burry and tell him

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1 Comment on The ‘Best Short’

In China: Policy Failure

November 14, 2025November 15, 2025

Nothing to see here, just a double-digit plunge in fixed investment across the world’s second-largest

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6 Comments on In China: Policy Failure

Are Traders Front-Running The Leveraged ETF Rebalance?

November 13, 2025

Way back last week (time flies when you’re over 40), I casually mentioned that leveraged

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3 Comments on Are Traders Front-Running The Leveraged ETF Rebalance?

The Crash Everyone Saw Coming

November 13, 2025November 15, 2025

The ubiquity of AI bubble narratives and, more to the point, the incisiveness with which

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12 Comments on The Crash Everyone Saw Coming

Local Short-Seller Deregisters Fund. Tomatoes Thrown

November 13, 2025November 14, 2025

Michael Burry hasn’t been “in sync with the markets” for quite “some time.” That’s according

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3 Comments on Local Short-Seller Deregisters Fund. Tomatoes Thrown

50/50

November 13, 2025November 14, 2025

If traders didn’t get the message following last month’s Fed meeting, they get it now:

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1 Comment on 50/50

The US Government’s Open Again

November 13, 2025November 14, 2025

Well, the US government’s open again, so that’s good. We should be thankful, I guess.

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9 Comments on The US Government’s Open Again

No Data For You!

November 12, 2025November 13, 2025

The thing I like about Karoline Leavitt is… well, nothing. I don’t like anything about

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11 Comments on No Data For You!

Tradeoffs

November 12, 2025

Don’t worry about AI demand. It’s robust now and will be for the foreseeable future.

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6 Comments on Tradeoffs

Bostic Peaces Out

November 12, 2025November 13, 2025

I guess Bill Pulte found clerical errors in Raphael Bostic’s mortgage paperwork too. Or maybe

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2 Comments on Bostic Peaces Out

Let’s Talk Housing. And Trump’s 50-Year Mortgages.

November 12, 2025November 13, 2025

Purchase activity perked up in US housing over the last week. That’s good news from

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8 Comments on Let’s Talk Housing. And Trump’s 50-Year Mortgages.

Big-Tech > US Government

November 12, 2025November 13, 2025

One under-appreciated aspect of what’s quickly becoming the grandest market debate of our time —

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5 Comments on Big-Tech > US Government

Not Hiring

November 11, 2025November 12, 2025

Breaking news: The US labor market’s slowing. A dearth of tradable narratives during Tuesday’s bond

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2 Comments on Not Hiring

Michael Burry, The Hyper-Scalers And A $176 Billion ‘Fraud’

November 11, 2025November 12, 2025

I’m avowedly not a Michael Burry fan. Most of you know that. He’s crazy, and

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12 Comments on Michael Burry, The Hyper-Scalers And A $176 Billion ‘Fraud’

A Word On CoreWeave…

November 11, 2025November 12, 2025

If you’re not familiar with CoreWeave by now, you need to remedy that situation posthaste,

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9 Comments on A Word On CoreWeave…

Trump Raises Specter Of Constitutional Crisis Over Tariff Refund

November 10, 2025November 12, 2025

You gotta hand it to him. I don’t know what “it” is on some days,

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13 Comments on Trump Raises Specter Of Constitutional Crisis Over Tariff Refund

How To Be A Contrarian

November 10, 2025November 11, 2025

Do you fancy yourself a contrarian? Of course you do. Just like everyone else who

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2 Comments on How To Be A Contrarian

Why Trump’s Supreme Court Tariff Case Is ‘Too Big To Lose’

November 10, 2025November 11, 2025

Donald Trump’s tariff regime or, getting straight to the point, pending litigation against the levies,

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3 Comments on Why Trump’s Supreme Court Tariff Case Is ‘Too Big To Lose’

Democrats Were Tired Of Winning

November 10, 2025November 11, 2025

Democrats were, I think, “winning” the US government shutdown. But they got tired of it.

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15 Comments on Democrats Were Tired Of Winning

A Private Sector Solution

November 9, 2025November 10, 2025

Investors and policymakers will miss a second update on consumer price growth in the US

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5 Comments on A Private Sector Solution

Chinese Deflation Eases On Holiday Effect, But Crisis Far From Over

November 9, 2025November 10, 2025

The good news is, deflation in China eased last month. The bad news (or the

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Leave a Comment on Chinese Deflation Eases On Holiday Effect, But Crisis Far From Over

Weekly: Is Trump The Dog Who Caught The Car?

November 8, 2025November 10, 2025

A year on from Donald Trump’s reelection, the president who promised a “new golden age”

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14 Comments on Weekly: Is Trump The Dog Who Caught The Car?

Tech Downside Likely Amplified By Leveraged Stock ETFs

November 7, 2025November 7, 2025

Earlier this week, I highlighted (or re-highlighted is more apt given the number of times

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1 Comment on Tech Downside Likely Amplified By Leveraged Stock ETFs

Leveraged Buildout

November 7, 2025November 10, 2025

Last weekend, I noted that it’s not realistic to expect America’s largest hyper-scalers to fund

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4 Comments on Leveraged Buildout

Trump Gets God-Awful Read On Consumer Sentiment

November 7, 2025November 9, 2025

Donald Trump and the personality cult that is the Republican party need to be careful:

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4 Comments on Trump Gets God-Awful Read On Consumer Sentiment

Xi Jinping’s Export Machine Slams Into Reverse

November 7, 2025November 9, 2025

And just like that, the only reliable pillar supporting the Chinese growth impulse looks wobbly.

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Leave a Comment on Xi Jinping’s Export Machine Slams Into Reverse

Should Taxpayers Preemptively Bail Out OpenAI?

November 6, 2025November 8, 2025

We’ve come too far, there’s too much to lose!  — Frank Ricard As questions mount

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35 Comments on Should Taxpayers Preemptively Bail Out OpenAI?

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • dayjob on It’s All Relative
  • WMD on Around, Around We Go
  • Mr. Lucky on Around, Around We Go
  • Mr. Lucky on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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