Trump Gets God-Awful Read On Consumer Sentiment

Donald Trump and the personality cult that is the Republican party need to be careful: American households are irked at the government shutdown, and while there’s enough blame to go around, it’s harder to deflect criticism when you control the presidency and both chambers of Congress.

Consumer sentiment very nearly matched the record low recorded during the worst of the 2022 inflation early this month, according to the marquee measure of household moods.

The preliminary headline print on the University of Michigan’s gauge for this month was a truly lackluster 50.3, down from October and below estimates.

As the figure shows, this marks the fourth consecutive decline, and puts Trump perilously close to breaking “Sleepy Joe”‘s dubious record.

“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,” survey director Joanne Hsu said Friday, describing the decline as “widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income and political affiliation.”

The expectations gauge slipped back below 50. At 49, it’s 36% lower than it was this time last year (i.e., versus the level observed when Trump was reelected) and is now pretty close to revisiting the post-“Liberation Day” nadir.

The current conditions index, at 52.3, hit a record low, bar none. The series dates to 1978.

In other words: Never before have American consumers been this disenchanted with the way things are going.  The “golden age” jokes write themselves, although I suppose they aren’t actually funny.

Inflation expectations receded meaningfully at the key five- to 10-year horizon, but at 3.6%, that series is still far too high.

From a demographic perspective, there was just one cohort which showed an increase in sentiment this month: Consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings.


 

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