I don’t love historical analogues in the market context. In a similar vein, I’m instinctually
Author: therealheisenberg
Squeeeeeeeze
Earlier this month, I endeavored to explain why equities were trading short. It wasn’t complicated
It Worked.
Congratulations to Javier Milei and, just as importantly from some vantage points, Scott Bessent: Argentines
What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting
A rate cut. Spoiler alert. That’s the short version. And there really isn’t a “long”
Free-Wheeling And Dealing
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have a deal. Or at least the contours of one.
Weekly: Bells At The Top?
The equity rally off the “Liberation Day” panic lows sure is exhibiting a lot of
Gipper Grievances
I suppose — indeed I hope, because if not it means a lot of you are
Fed Gets Rate-Cut Green Light From BLS
“Welcome back to the office. President Trump’s expecting good news.” Furloughed US government statisticians temporarily
US Economy Ok For Now, But Maybe Not For Long
Guess what? Activity across the US economy picked up in early October when businesses and,
All Skewed Up
You don’t need to hedge what you don’t own. And vice versa. That simple, axiomatic
For Many US Home Hopefuls, ‘Affordable’ Remains A Distant Prospect
It says a lot, none of it especially encouraging, about the resale market for US
Vladimir, It’s Don. I Sanctioned Your Oil. Call Me Back.
Don’t worry about it, it’s just a negotiating tactic. And the world’s anyway awash in
‘If This Was A Normal Cycle’
In “This Time Was Different” I talked at some length about the uniqueness of the
A Word (Or 900) On Tesla
Since he stepped down as co-POTUS in April, I lost track of the daily melodrama
This Time Was Different…
Any retelling of the post-pandemic macro narrative has to include a nod to the fact
King Trump In Hot Pursuit Of Own Shutdown Record
Congratulations to Donald Trump. First for maneuvering into the extremely enviable position of being able
Americans Are Still Bailing On Home Contracts Despite ‘Low’ Rates
US mortgage rates. They’re high and low at the same time. High in the context
Trump Likes Chances In $230 Million Settlement Claim Against Himself
Donald Trump’s allegedly demanding the Justice Department he now controls write him a check —
Gold Rally Finally Collapses Under Its Own Weight
Earlier this month, when spot gold first cleared $4,000, I gently suggested it was time
Vol Supply Wave Smothered Nascent Stock Selloff
This’ll be a little esoteric for some readers, but that’s ok: Esoterica’s part of the
Glass Ceilings, Iron Ladies
We’re witnessing “a new dawn for Japanese policymaking.” So said Fumitake Fujita of the Japan
Much Ado About Idiosyncratic Nothings
I hate to say “I told you so,” but you have to be careful with
Leave The Buybacks, Take The Capex
Buybacks or capex? Cue the knight from The Last Crusade: “You must choose. But choose
The Risks Of Trump’s Brazen Latin America Policy
Late last year, following Donald Trump’s reelection, a piece in Foreign Affairs predicted an end
China Posts Small GDP Beat, But Retail Sales Abysmal
China barely kept up appearances in the third quarter amid lackluster domestic demand and what
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