I’m not much for stating the self-evident. It seems like a waste of time. Mine
Author: therealheisenberg
Hedge When You Can, Not When You Have To
You hedge downside when you can, not when you have to. That was the friendly
Leaving Wolf’s Lair
“Is this about Adolf? Because we can always dial down the Adolf.” Linda Yaccarino on
Some Folks Bought Some Homes
They were buying homes in America over the last week. I don’t know who “they”
Chinese Economy Continues To Ice Over
China’s still struggling to resuscitate domestic demand. In case that was your burning question mid-week.
Central Banks Were Polled On Trump Risks. The Results Were Terrifying
“We should get somebody in there that’s going to lower interest rates,” Donald Trump said
What Could Go Wrong? Summer 2025 Edition
What could go wrong? Snarky macro commentators with misplaced pretensions to cleverness are quite fond
BofA Lifts S&P Target. Apologizes For ‘Underestimating Corporate America’
Early Tuesday, while editorializing around Goldman’s new year-end S&P target, I wrote that other house
Market Breadth Warnings Are Back
We’re back to fretting over market breadth. It’s an all-too-familiar concern for US equities, and
Goldman’s Kostin Knows How To Play The Game
If you’re a sell-sider with responsibility for the official house S&P call, there’s really only
As America Hits ‘Debt Wall,’ Get Ready For Shorter Cycles
What happens to business cycles when fiscal policy’s constrained such that it can’t act as
Fiat Money And The Bonds
How bad of an investment are bonds? I’m not making an especially profound observation when
How Seriously Should We Take Elon Musk’s ‘America Party’?
On a lot of levels, Elon Musk’s an unserious person. So, even if he’s serious
One Way Or Another, Corporate America Always Wins
If it seems to you like corporate America — and here I mean big corporate
The Dollar’s Relationship To US Stocks Is Changing
If you’re immersed in the market zeitgeist, you’ve probably heard all you care to by
Letters And Deadlines
“We’re going to start sending letters out to various countries tomorrow.” So said Donald Trump
Persona Non Grata
Now we’ll never know where the bomb fuel is. 22 years on from Mohamed ElBaradei’s
So… What’s The Bear Case Now?
Wall Street headed into Friday’s US holiday on track for another solid weekly gain. And
‘Solid’ US Jobs Report Is Optical Illusion
The US economy added more jobs than expected last month, and you can thank state
Decent PMI Headlines Belie Underlying Stagflation
The last of this week’s top-tier US macro releases sent mixed messages about the largest
Dollar Debate Rages As Trump Upends The World
I suppose this goes without saying, but there’s still a lot of angst out there
Private Hiring Slams Into Reverse As ADP Headline Goes Negative
Private sector employers in the US — that’d be the businesses on whose shoulders job
2025 Is Worst Year For Job Cuts Since Pandemic
There was good news and bad news from Wednesday’s monthly update on job cut announcements
Lowest Mortgage Rates Since ‘Liberation Day’ Can’t Break Housing Gridlock
Quick, refi! Mortgage rates in the US slipped below 6.80% on the MBA’s gauge in
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