American households’ view on Donald Trump’s economy deteriorated “sharply” in September, Tuesday’s update on consumer
Author: therealheisenberg
US Homeowners Suffer Third Straight Inflation-Adjusted Loss
If you’re a struggling renter locked out of the American dream, you can take some
Beware The Froth
Are you sharp-eyed when it comes to signs of market froth? Do you wake up
Recovery Pending…
“How about those rates, huh?!” Wrote scores of desperate buyer’s agents in emoji-riddled emails blasted
This Is Almost Surely A Bubble…
The f-cked up thing about asset bubbles is that although it’s easy enough to detect
Doomscroll
A day off I found out Osama bin Laden was dead the same way
It’s Jobs Week In America. Shutdown Depending.
It’s supposed to be jobs week in America, but like everything else in the country
Weekly: Don’t Be A Hero
Before anyone accuses me of catastrophizing the situation, consider how awkwardly politicized the most routine
Dollar Rebound Seen As Nascent Risk To Asset Bubbles
Do we really need those Fed cuts after all? That was the question for traders
‘Extreme 25s’ For The New ‘Roarin’ 20s’
Earlier this month, Vanguard sent me a helpful email reminder: “We noticed you’re holding cash
Goldilocks. Or Something
Goldilocks! You gotta love it. Or love her, I guess. This week’s marquee US macro
Russian Vodka, Poisoned By Chernobyl!
I remember precisely where I was and approximately what I was doing on November 24,
Just Buy New, It’s Cheaper…
The bad news is, the pace of contract closings for “used” homes in America was
Huge GDP Revisions Make Mockery Of Fed Rate Cuts
Revised data can be trusted as long as it’s favorable, right? Asking for market participants,
Job Losses? Where?
US jobless claims. Occasionally, they spike. When they do, everybody “flips out, man.” (Shades of
Kindling Present: No Matches Allowed
Trivia time: How many daily SPX moves of +/- 1% have we seen since the
‘The Needle Was Threaded’
Say it with me: Financial conditions are easy. Now say it again. And again. Because
Alibaba’s 50% Rally Evokes Dangerous Phase Of Tech Hype Cycles
I’ll say it. I don’t care: The AI hype machine’s starting to look a lot
New Home Sales Surge Amid Builder Incentives, But Average Price Soars
Put pervasive builder incentives and a meaningful decline in mortgage rates together in a cauldron
US Housing Sees ‘Strongest Buyer’s Market On Record.’ With A Caveat…
This time last year, home financing costs in the US bottomed around 6.15%. Over the
Why ‘You Cannot Take Your Hedges Off Now’
Grinding, low-vol melt-ups are painful when you’re hedged for downside. And the summer just ended
Some See Dot-Com Ghost In OpenAI-Nvidia Deal
Every week, there’s another AI capex boom story. Usually two or three. In the eyes
Gold Rush 2025
Gold. It’s had a helluva run. Croesus was really onto something. Typically, you have to
US Economy Has Best Quarter Of 2025, PMIs Suggest
Q3 was “the best quarter so far this year for US businesses.” That’s according to
OECD Lifts Growth Outlook But Warns ‘Downside Risks Loom Large’
The OECD on Tuesday raised nearly all its forecasts for the global economy to reflect
Show Of Hands: Who Wants To Bail Out Javier Milei?
Argentina’s in the news. So let me say a bit about Argentina. I’ll try to
The Gin Pen
Antecedent: A vignette 12 years ago next month, I saw Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar at
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