The newly-reopened US government will release two-month-old employment figures this week.

I’d suggest no one will care unless the BLS’s headline hiring tally for September prints a large downside miss, but then I’d have to say what consensus is (i.e., A miss versus what?) and I’m not sure there is a consensus anymore.

This is somewhat sad: We’re talking about what, not so long ago, was still the most important macro release in the world, bar none. Now, it’s being published on a two-month delay to highly skeptical investors, some of whom left it for dead.

The September data would’ve been collected before the government shutdown, but to just recycle the original consensus for the release — which stood at 50,000 in late September — seems naive in light of alternative data which hints at a lower number.

The figure above’s a reminder: The average of ADP private hiring and Revelio’s valiant (if inherently imperfect) effort to replicate nonfarm payrolls suggests a hiring impulse that’s far more subdued, to the extent it’s discernible at all.

It still isn’t completely clear whether October’s jobs report will ever be released, or if it is, when and in what form. For now, the semi-official line is that the BLS will publish an NFP tally for October but not the unemployment rate, given that the establishment survey for last month will be available to statisticians whereas the household survey won’t.

“September’s data during the second half of November doesn’t carry the same relevance as it would have over six weeks ago,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked, somewhat indelicately. “Investors are all too cognizant of the softening employment profile that was already established during the summer months [but] there is a contingent that views the summer months as the trade war-driven anomaly that will be offset by a return to employment growth in the Sept-Dec window.”

That contingent’s back-footed currently. Recall that Challenger’s update on layoffs and hiring plans for October was disastrous (dare I resort to a little light hyperbole) and the latest weekly ADP tally suggested private sector hiring fell off a cliff late last month.

Ironically for his “golden age” meme, Donald Trump needs slower hiring or even net job losses if he wants a December rate cut. The Committee’s more divided than it’s ever been under Jerome Powell, and while I personally think the preponderance of available evidence suggests downside risks to the labor market have increased meaningfully, the bar for a third straight cut’s high.

The September jobs report will be released on Thursday, when jobless claims will resume as well after a seven-week hiatus. ADP will release the above-mentioned weekly private hiring update on Tuesday.

Also on deck in the US: Builder sentiment (which’ll undoubtedly print below the threshold separating net optimism from pessimism for the 19th consecutive month) on Tuesday, starts and permits (resuming on Wednesday), existing home sales on Thursday and preliminary reads on S&P Global’s PMIs for November on Friday.