I feel like I should introduce this brief update with a reminder: We’re getting weekly data on private sector hiring from ADP now.
I realize a lot of you are aware of that, but it’s a (very) recent phenomenon, so it’s worth recapitulating: In addition to its monthly tally, ADP’s now publishing a four-week moving average of private sector job creation every Tuesday, an effort to “provide a directional indicator of the labor market” on a more timely basis, as they put it.
Last week’s read on that average was poor indeed, where “poor” means it suggested an average of 11,250 jobs were being lost per week. Tuesday’s update was better, but “better” is a relative term.
As the figure shows, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four-week period ending November 1. The prior week’s readout was revised to show the pace of job losses was even quicker than previously estimated late last month.
In the color accompanying the release, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted that new hires are starting to account for a larger share of employees, a statistic she said might seem counterintuitive at first.
“This growing share of new hires would seem to run counter to the slowed pace of hiring [but the] contradiction tells us a lot about today’s jobs market,” she wrote. Normally, the trend in new hires tracks the business cycle, but demographics are overriding that, Richardson said. Simply put: “Employers are hiring to replace existing workers, not increase headcount.”
Meanwhile, the Labor Department started reporting jobless claims again on Tuesday. Initial filers for the week to October 18 were 232,000. I don’t know what anyone’s supposed to do with that information. It’s a month old. And the three missing weeks preceding October 18 are still… well, still missing.


