“Relatively buoyant.”
That’s the US economy, according to S&P Global, which on Friday released preliminary PMI data for November.
Suffice to say the figures didn’t exactly make the case for the December rate cut John Williams suggested may still be on the table. At 55, the services headline was the highest in four months.
The manufacturing print was 51.9. That’s a four-month low, but for a sector ISM panelists say is mired in a never-ending recession, it could certainly be worse.
These readouts map to annualized GDP growth of around 2.5% for Q4, the survey’s chief business economist Chris Williamson noted, calling the growth impulse “encouragingly broad-based for now.” Forward-looking metrics improved smartly.
Williamson described a “broad undercurrent of economic optimism” in America as businesses look forward to easier monetary policy. The end of the shutdown in D.C. was also cause for celebration.
There were a few caveats. The poll results suggested manufacturers are seeing new orders growth slow, fanning worries about unsold stock, and Williamson said the pace of hiring slowed on cost concerns exacerbated by the tariffs.
“Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks,” he went on.
Between lingering inflation jitters and the decent read on overall activity, particularly in the services sector, these PMIs were yet another piece of incremental evidence to suggest US recession worries are premature. Or misplaced entirely.


